Go Greene!

As a valued Cincinnati Reds season ticket member, the Reds offered me the option to purchase discounted seats for the Dayton Dragons (the Reds Class A affiliate) new "Dragon's Lair" section in left field at 5/3rd Field.  Access to the "Dragon's Lair" includes a free Dragons t-shirt, a complimentary Dragons ball cap, all you can eat burgers, hot dogs, mac-n-cheese, salad, baked beans, watermelon slices, soft drinks and cookies (one might safely assume that portions of the menu will alternate throughout the season).  I was offered a range of dates, consulted with Lou to see if/when he and his family would be available and we picked a date; six tickets for April 9, 2018.  

Mere days later, it was announced that date would also coincide with the Ohio debut of the Reds #1 pick (and #2 overall) from last season's June amateur draft - Hunter Greene.

Score!

Global warming Climate change wrought dwindling temperatures, wind and cold rains and snow during the first part of April, the middle of April and the end of April.  The game time temperature for Hunter Greene's Ohio debut was forecast to be in the mid-40's, too cold for My Dear Elderly Mother.  I summoned a pinch hitter off the bench.....

..... Yes!  That's right!  The Incomparable Joe Wilhelm, fresh off his disappearance act ditching me on Opening Day.  Moments after this photo was snapped, we spied Hunter Greene taking the field to begin warming up and so hastily we recreated the pose with Hunter Greene in the background:

That's Hunter (above) standing next to the tarp and near the stands, facing the stands.  Here are more shots of Hunter Greene getting loose:

Joe and I then went for food.  We loaded up our plates with hot, steaming food.  Seated back at the table I took a hearty bite of my cheeseburger.  It was cold.  No joke.  The near-freezing temperature and bitter wind conspired to cool my plate of hot food even before I could get back to my seat.  Cold burger.  Cold hot dog.  Cold mac-n-cheese.  Not very appetizing.  Keeping our eyes on the prize, we focused on our reason for being there!

Hunter Greene, number 3 in your program (and on the scoreboard, above) but number 1 in our cold, slow-beating hearts.

Lou and the family arrived just before the first pitch, bringing with him a bag full of hand warmers!  The Dragons took the field, the umpire yelled "play ball!" (this I cannot verify, from our position atop the left field fence), and Hunter Greene fired a fastball to the first batter he faced in Ohio.

Steeeee-rike one!

100 MPH on the stadium radar gun!  Even local high school baseball legend Joe Wilhelm couldn't hit that!  I had mentioned to my nieces earlier in the afternoon that Joe would be available for signing autographs through the 3rd inning but they declined.

In the third inning an alarming activity near the ball field was observed; Dragons personnel stirring in the bullpen.  And just like that, after 3 innings, Hunter Greene got the hook.  He pitched well and threw hard but the manager shut him down before Hunter Greene could qualify for the win.  Why the Reds/Dragons think they need him to throw fewer innings as a professional than he did in high school is beyond me.

With Greene yanked, there was some contemplation about heading back for Butler County.  This sentiment increased as an odd sort of frozen precipitation began to fall on us.  "Sleet," Lou said.  "Freezing rain," offered Joe.  I examined closely the precipitation in my fleece-gloved hand.  Graupel, I determined.  Everyone looked at me in stunned silence.  "Say what?!" said The Incomparable Joe Wilhelm.  Graupel, I repeated.  Out came the smartphone, the Googs was dialed up, "graupel" punched in and - voila! - there was some agreement with my pronouncement.  Lou accused me of creating a fictional Wikipedia page for graupel.  

Hey, I watch Jen Carfagno each morning.  I know my weather terminology.

The Incomparable Joe Wilhelm is a people person and he makes friends wherever he goes.  Including left field in Dayton, Ohio.

A career minor leaguer, I'm not certain Narcisco Crook speaks English but with Joe that isn't necessary or even preferable; Joe speaks an international language of friendship and goodwill.  Joe and Narcisco struck up a funny exchange of cheers, whoops, and hollers.  We efforted to cobble together a banner to hang over the left field fence that would have read "Crook's Corner" but all we could find were flimsy napkins.

Lou and family determined 6 innings at the Dayton Municipal Cryogenic Chamber Ballpark was sufficient misery (plus, it was a school night for the girls) and so they bolted but not before informing me of the intense, blazing embrace of molten warmth that could be found in the restrooms.  Curious to discover this mythical Xanadu of heat, I shook myself free from the layer of ice that entombed me to my seat and visited the men's room.  Affixed to the ceiling of the restroom was what must have been an 80-year old military grade heater removed from the hanger of a decommissioned WW2 aircraft carrier.  Radiant heat exploded from this unit and filled every molecule of oxygen like God's Own Blast Furnace.   My relief from the cold was so instantaneous and all-encompassing that I would have gladly melted into a puddle like Frosty the Snowman in that 5/3rd Field hothouse.

Warmed up, I returned to the game.  Joe and I heroically stuck it out through the 8th inning before we spit the bit [horse racing term].

I dropped off Joe at his palatial estate and fired up the Jeep's satellite radio.  I rocked out to an Eddie Van Halen guitar solo cruising through downtown H-town:

That counts, right?

Luckily, the music improved the closer I got to The Ranch:

The second biggest band of the 1980s led into the Red Rocker's only creditable song:

It was 80's Night in the Jeep!

Roll the credits!

A Foggy Day (in Baltimore Town)

Expecting the Derby winner Justify to repeat in the Preakness Stakes I opted to get some things done around the Ranch and to put in a few hours of administrative work at the office on Saturday.  I didn't miss much.  In fact, the 130,000+ that turned out at rainy, muddy Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland didn't miss much either for the simple reason that they couldn't see very much.

Following a week of persistent rain, a dense fog descended upon Pimlico Saturday afternoon.  Rail birds who 12 hours earlier staked out a spot on the finish line in hopes of having the best view of the track couldn't see the horses as they entered the clubhouse turn by mid-afternoon.

If the field was on the far turn, nobody could know for certain.  By post time of the final race of the day (one race following the Preakness Stakes), the fog was so thick that the official timer was unable to sense the start.  No fractional times were recorded, no final race time was recorded and no fractional positions were noted.  The race call is an instant classic.

Here is a nice photograph of Derby winner and the soon-to-be Preakness winner Justify moments before the start of the second jewel in the Triple Crown:

For handicappers and horse players it proved to be a highly unsatisfactory day of wagering.  Veteran handicappers like to cash winning tickets on horses with longer odds so as to collect larger payouts.  Big fields help to disperse the money wagered on a race and, in theory, could offer higher odds on a horse the betting public might overlook.

Remember that for handicappers the objective is not cashing handfuls of tickets.  The objective is to make a lot of money.  It only takes 1 or 2 winning tickets to pay a visit to the IRS office at the race track.  [Yes, that's a real thing]

On the Preakness undercard, three turf races were moved from the grass to the dirt (slop).   In two of the three races, only 4 horses went to the post.  In the third, 5 horses went to the post.

Most dispiriting of all, favorites were winning.   

All.  Day.  Long.  

Of the 14 races, betting favorites won ten times.  Twice the betting favorites finished second behind horses that went off at odds of 2-1 or lower.  Two more times the betting favorite finished 4th but the eventual winners in those two races went off at odds of less than 2-1.

Brutal.

For context, favorites win approximately 33% of the time.

On Saturday at Pimlico, every winning horse was either the betting favorite or went off at odds of 2-1 or less. 

For all that wagering misery, race patrons suffered through a deluge of rain, mud and long lines at the betting windows.

Are we having fun, yet?

For all the time spent handicapping, for all the bankroll shoved through the betting windows with both hands, here is a sampling of what the horse players received in return on Preakness Day;

Race 1:

$3.60 to win
$16.50 exacta
$30.70 trifecta

Race 2:

$4.20 to win
$3.40 on the Place horse
$3.90 Daily Double
$5.70 exacta
$14.70 trifecta

Race 3:

$3.20 on the Place horse
$6.75 Pick Three
$8.10 exacta

Race 4:

$11.95 Pick Three
$11.70 exacta
$29.50 trifecta

Race 5:

$17.40 Pick Three
$9.40 exacta
$28.60 trifecta


Race 6:

$3.00 to win
$3.00 on the Place horse
$9.50 Pick Three
$3.50 exacta
$8.20 trifecta

Race 7:

$4.60 to win
$2.60 on the Place horse
$4.85 Pick Three
$6.10 exacta
$9.40 trifecta

Race 8:

$2.80 to win
$3.05 Pick Three
$7.30 exacta

Race 9:

$8.50 Pick Three
$12.90 exacta

Race 10:

$12.20 Pick Three
$11.20 exacta
$31.50 trifecta

Race 11:

$4.00 to win
$15.25 Pick Three
$9.20 exacta

Race 12:

$3.20 to win
$8.55 Pick Three
$5.80 exacta
$28.50 trifecta
$62.80 superfecta

Preakness Stakes:

$2.80 to win
$3.75 Pick Three
$21.90 Pick Four
$41.04 Pick Six "Jackpot"
$13.70 exacta

Preakness Stakes 2018; No risk, no reward!

Roll the credits!

Easter 2018 at the Ball Park

With Lou and his family away on a family road trip throughout the picturesque American southwest, that left me to my own devices for the Easter holiday.   Robert (he let's me call him "Bob") Castellini, in all his wise beneficence, included as a part of my Cincinnati Reds season ticket package two tickets to that Easter Sunday ballgame.  The weather conditions were a bit brisk that afternoon - because April 2018 in Ohio was still being throttled by Old Man Winter - so I treated My Dear Elderly Mother to a day in The Handlebar.

All-you-can-shovel food.  A selection of complimentary soft drinks, tea and coffee.  All the desserts your dentist will later profit from.  And, for those so inclined, vouchers for up to six free alcoholic drinks!  All for one (not so) low low price!  Make no mistake; if you plan to arrive an hour or more before the first pitch, if you have a sizable appetite, if you can swill copious quantities of alcohol over a 3-hour period, and if you prefer not to be subjected to the elements then The Handlebar is worth the heavy price tag.

Surprisingly, we had The Handlebar to ourselves.  No joke, we were joined by a young couple and later a family of four with two rambunctious children drifted in and out for brief periods.  Otherwise, The Handlebar was almost like our own personal luxury suite.  Sweet!

Aside from the friendly and helpful staff on hand, there was one other notable person in The Handlebar that Easter Sunday:

You never know who you'll bump into at the ballpark and on Easter Sunday Cincinnati Reds legend Tom Browning aka "Mr Perfect" bumped into me.  For about 10 minutes before the first pitch we hung out at the bar, talkin' baseball.  I asked Mr Perfect whether strike three is really the hardest strike to throw (with Homie's Opening Day pitching line in the back of my mind).  The answer was "Yes, and it also depends upon who is the umpire calling balls and strikes."  I axed Tom about young pitchers and whether they rolled into Rookie Ball with pitching mechanics that were already pretty close to Big League ready or whether they required a lot of work from their pitching coaches (with Reds top prospect Hunter Greene in mind).  Browning said generally the pitching mechanics of young prospects in the system are fairly well formed.  I asked Mr Perfect about pitching at old Mile High Stadium in Denver and we talked about some of his teammates from long ago;  Lloyd McClendon, Randy St. Clair, Mario Soto.

Brunches with Browning is a regularly scheduled event for Sunday home games at GABP.  $55 per person (not including the price of a game ticket).

The Handlebar offers expansive views of the ballpark and the riverfront:

The Ohio River was high, wide and mighty on Easter Sunday.

Held over for Easter from an Opening Day appearance was one of the world famous Budweiser Clydesdales.

This news just in;  That's a large horse!

My Dear Elderly Mother is loathe to be photographed, so I had to be sneaky about it.

Befitting "The Year Without A Spring," the next day it snowed in Reds Country.  Again.....

.....and the following day, a chilly rain washed away the snow on another damp, dark, cloudy day more appropriate for late November than April:

This was the dreary scene (above) that Tuesday morning in Hamilton, OH along the banks of the Great Miami River.

Roll the credits!

Derby 144 Epilogue

A record amount of rain fell on Derby Day at Churchill Downs this year:

Fun Fact;  Exterminator raced and won at old Latonia Raceway in Latonia, KY on the site, today, of Turfway Park in a prep race for the 44th running of the Kentucky Derby (1918).  In that year's Run for the Roses Exterminator finished first in a field of eight in just under 2 minutes 11 seconds on a track rated as "Muddy" (no surprise, right?) and paid $61.20 to win.

Not-so-fun Fact;  Many years ago I bid unsuccessfully on the silver julep cup awarded to the owners of Exterminator for winning that Latonia prep race.

Records for wagering on both the Derby itself and for Derby Day in its entirety were set this year:

Southwest Ohio, also known as God's Country, continues to be among the strongest television markets for the Kentucky Derby:

Way to go, Cincinnati and Dayton!

There were no 6-of-6 winning tickets for the Derby Day Pick Six.  Learning of such, a handicapper's mind immediately seizes upon one compound word; Carryover!

Following the teeming mass of humanity that descends upon Churchill Downs each year for Oaks and Derby Days and litters the premises with race programs, Daily Racing Forms, losing tickets, a not-insignificant number of winning tickets, hot dog wrappers, paper cups, dashed hopes and crippled dreams, the Twin Spires goes dark for a few days to put the place back into running order.  Thus, it would not be until the following Thursday that live racing would return to Louisville, KY and bring with it a Pick Six carryover of $770,000.00.  Expecting considerably more greenbacks to flood into the pool, I made like noted horse racing enthusiast Peter Edward Rose and dove in headfirst.  

The Thursday race card was filled with vastly less-accomplished thoroughbreds than inhabited Churchill Downs the previous week.

Using a common pejorative for such races and fields, "cheap races/horses."  Implied in those derogatives is the expectation of less predictability of outcomes among horses proven to be inconsistent competitors exhibiting poor results.  Even so, the Pick Six pool - bouyed by the three-quarter million dollar Derby Day carryover - ballooned to nearly $2 million dollars.  Horse players all around the globe aimed to take their shot.

The Derby Day Pick Six was set as a $2 minimum wager.  On Thursday, the minimum wager for the Pick Six was set at $0.20.  Accordingly, I loaded up my ticket with more combinations than typically would be financially practical.

As you can see, I had 3 winners, a second, a third and an also-ran that amounted to a payout of nothing.  

There were two dozen winning tickets each of which paid $81,891.72.

Roll the credits!

Kentucky Derby 2018; The Narrow Margin

For the TL;DR crowd, here is the summary;  I did not bet on the winner of the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby and I did not walk away from the racino with heavier pockets than when I entered 10 hours earlier that same day.  I did cash 8 winning tickets on the day.

The upside is that I have for the IRS a deep stack of un-cashed tickets with which I may offset any horse race wagering windfall I receive later this year.

The Old Master of the Turf is less inclined these days to travel to Keeneland for the Blue Grass Stakes, or for any race day at Keeneland, and so it has now been a few years since we last took off a day of work on a Saturday to watch in person a key prep race for the Derby.  Add to that the exhaustive workload of the busiest-ever January-April at TDS, Inc.... and the start of Reds baseball this season.... and I didn't have the free time to devote to the monitoring of everything related to the Kentucky Derby this year.  And so when The Old Master of the Turf met with me for doughnuts and coffee at Timmy Ho's this past Thursday morning it was my first opportunity to look at racing material - in this case race day programs for Friday's Kentucky Oaks and Saturday's Kentucky Derby - and to discuss in depth the subject with anyone.

I blew off work Friday afternoon to watch live coverage of Oaks Day on NBCSN and to handicap.  I didn't get my hands on my favored Daily Racing Form so I had to contend with whatever limited data was to be found in the thin Derby Day program.  In recent years I have shifted the focus of my wagering to playing the rolling Pick Three, the baby brother to the original Pick Six and the Pick Four (also a relatively recent development in the centuries-old saga of horse race wagering).  Of course there would be Win/Place wagers, some Exacta and Trifecta Boxes.   With $1-minimum Superfecta Boxes I would do my best to resist the siren song of monster-sized Superfecta payouts requiring IRS involvement before getting paid.

When you roll with The Old Master of the Turf, you arrive at the race track early.  EARLY.  At Mr B's direction we parked on the casino side of Miami Valley Gaming.

I suppose the casino was actually open for business at 9:30am.  After all, the lights were on.  The a/c was cranked up.  And..... it's a casino.  Aren't casinos open 24 hours a day?  At any rate, aside from me and The Old Master of the Turf, the casino appeared to be utterly devoid of human life.  As was, for that matter, the track side grandstand at MVG where Mr B reserved a table for 8:

The TV monitors which soon would be simulcasting racing from tracks all across the country were at that early hour all dark.

With the spare time I mapped out my wagering strategy.  In particular, which horses to include in my modest Pick Six (Races 7-12), the three different Pick Four's (Races 2-5, 5-8 and 9-12) and the rolling Pick Three's (rolling because a new Pick Three starts with every race until near the end of the race card when there are no longer three upcoming races to include).

After the first three races on the Derby Day under card, not one of my nine different wagers proved to be a winner.  In the first race I had an Exacta Box that finished 1st & 4th.  In the second race a Superfecta Box that finished 1st & 4th & well-up-the-track & M.I.A. In the third race an Exacta Box that wound up 3rd & long.

I turned the program page to Race 4 already $59.00 down, inked my wagers onto the bottom of the program page and went off to place my bets.  My Trifecta Box ran 1st & 2nd & not-good-enough but I hit the back end of a modest Win/Place wager.  

Eureka!

This slight improvement in fortunes spurred me to three consecutive races in which I had a Win or Win/Place wager on the eventual winner:

There were other losing tickets in these same three races which offset some of my gains, but the net result had me back to within $16.00 of breaking even halfway through the race day and thus giving me the bankroll reserves to attack the remainder of the race card.

You will note in the series of three successive photographs immediately above that my Race 6 winner is represented not by my cashable Win ticket but rather my winning Pick Three.  That little beauty cost me $6.00 and returned $43.00.  You can see the appeal of wagering on a Pick Three.  On Derby Day, the Pick Three's paid:

$47.70
$101.80
$103.15
$43.00 [mine]
$54.35
$126.15
$250.45
$2,917.85
$672.00
$3,274.55

As the day wore on it became more difficult to pick winners.  This fact may be discerned from the progression of Pick Three payouts.  To hit a sizable Pick Three like the $2,900.00 payout (above) you'd have to pick some long shots like the 39-1 winner in that race.  Which I did.  On my ticket (Race 8 Pick Three, below) I included the #3 horse which went off at odds of 49-1 and finished second. [I did collect the back half of a Win/Place wager on that 49-1 long shot, named New York Central - the railroad my grandfather worked for.  It paid $27.80 for a $2 bet.  This proved the be the last of the 8 tickets I cashed on Derby Day.]

I played ten Pick Three's on Derby Day, from races 1 through 10.  I cashed just the one, pictured above.  The narrow margin that separated me from being down on the day and being up on the day... or driving home in a Brink's Truck... is revealed by the nine losing Pick Three tickets.  Here they are:

My Pick Three tickets from Races 1 through 7, excluding the winning Pick Three from Race 4, all.... all.... had two-of-three correct selections [highlighted in orange].  Three of those six losing Pick Three tickets would see my errant selection finish, agonizingly, in second place.  A fourth of those six losing Pick Three tickets would see my incorrect selection finish in third place.

Had any one of those 3 second-place horses wound up in the winner's circle (or the third-place horse) I would have walked away from the track even for the day.   Had two or three of those hard-charging thoroughbreds been just a few strides more fleet, my narrow margin of misfortune would have turned into a plain old fortune.

Razor-thin.  That was the difference in my Derby Day.  As the old saying goes, That's horse racing.

Additionally, I played all three Pick Four's and one of them - begun with Race 5 (see below) - was "live" through the first three races (highlighted again in orange) but the ticket ran aground for the final leg.

And while, as a whole, my Pick Four wagers were not quite the equal to my Pick Three's, you will observe my handwritten notes (on the tickets) that my Race 2 Pick Four included a first- and second-place finisher and the Race 9 Pick Four had a winner and two seconds. 

My Pick Six started strong but then immediately was sunk:

The Old Master of the Turf acquitted himself well enough to be satisfied with his own efforts:

I call this one "Mr B and the Green Salad of Salvation."  And get a load of the random dude wearing a Derby Day sombrero at the next table. 

The time between races expands, seemingly exponentially, as the Derby Day race card wears on.  This is primarily as a function of accommodating the lengthening lines at Churchill Downs betting windows.  In truth, that phenomenon of lengthening lines at betting windows occurs at every simulcast site around the country.   What else is a horse player to do with the excess time but check out the other race tracks to see what might be going on elsewhere.  Maybe there's a jockey you like at Gulfstream Park and he is about to enter the starting gate riding a long shot.  Perhaps Alyssa Ali is reporting live from the paddock at Arlington Park and you find her irresistible.  Or the betting favorite in the upcoming race at Belmont Park has bloodlines tracing your favorite race horses/sires:

Ghostzapper?  Holy Bull?  I couldn't get to the betting window fast enough!  The filly Holy Helena won.  This Belmont winner was the only non-Churchill Downs wager I placed on Derby Day 

Two of Mr B's cosa nostra of old-time horse players joined us at our table.  They were fully, I say fully, engaged.

One makes book on his untraceable mobile phone while the other [names withheld to protect the innocent], holding a sheet of wagers as long as a necktie, reacts with some warm feeling toward events unfolding on the turf.

With that, we have now reached that portion of my annual Derby Day recap where - once again - I immodestly remind my loyal subscribers of just how well my handicapping measures up against the best expert analysis that the Daily Racing Form has to offer.  First the usual stipulation that this is not a back-handed compliment of the DRF.  I think the DRF staff of handicappers, along with Steve Haskin at The Blood-Horse and Randy Moss on NBC, uniformly are very good at what they do.  But even when performing at their very best they do not exceed my own ability to handicap a race card.  For Derby Day, the DRF assigned just three of their analysts - Byron King, Kenny Peck and Marty McGee - to give their selections for the full Derby Day race card.  The race card that day included two minor races after the 144th running of the Derby.  I didn't handicap those races, as I never do, because me and The Old Master of the Turf would be well on our way home long before those races went off.  Therefore, we evaluate races 1 through 12 (Race 12 was the Kentucky Derby):

The three horses I correctly picked to win, addressed well above, are highlighted here in orange; McCracken, American Gal and Proctor's Ledge in Races 5-7.  

Byron King correctly identified one winner on the day (circled in blue ink; Big Gray Rocket in Race 2), Kenny Peck also identified correctly one winner (McCracken, Race 5) and Marty McGee correctly selected three winners (American Gal in Race 5, Proctor's ledge in Race 6 and Yoshida in Race 11).

One of those three DRF analysts - Byron King - selected for the Derby the same horse as did I, Bolt D'Oro.   The DRF "Timeform Analysis" also liked my horse:

Steve Haskin from The Blood-Horse ranked Bolt D'Oro 4th for his final "Derby Dozen" column, published Derby week:

Neither of the other two Churchill Downs analysts selected my horse nor the eventual winner, Justify, among their top three preferences.  The DRF "Timeform Analysis" lays out the case most of us subscribed to for taking a stand against Justify:

Plus, there was the oldest "curse" in American sports - The Curse of Apollo.  Justify being the first horse to win the Derby without having raced as a two-year old in nearly 140 years has less to do with inferred superstar status than it does changes in modern training practices.  Once upon a time, horses raced - often - at the age of 2:

Steve Haskin ranked Justify #3, just ahead of Bolt D'Oro on his "Derby Dozen:"

Perhaps the biggest winner on Derby Day was the legacy of Ghostzapper as a sire.  If you review the photographs of my three successive Churchill Downs winners, well above, you will see that two of those winners were sired by Ghostzapper as was my lone Belmont wager/winner and the third of my Churchill Downs winners has Ghostzapper as dam sire (the father of the horse's mudder... I mean mother).  As for Justify, the winner of the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby:

That's right!  Ghostzapper, dam sire.

Here is your final order of finish, in case you lost sight of your mud-drenched Derby horse (as did Mr B):

And your menu of Derby payouts:

Note the $770,000.00 Pick Six carryover.  This Thursday.  Churchill Downs.  I'm just sayin'.

Roll the credits!