Last Wednesday The Old Master of the Turf acquired for me, via special delivery from one of his cosa nostra of old school horse players, a copy of the Daily Racing Form Breeders' Cup Advance Past Performances. It may or may not carry the longest title in print media, but it is certainly the most important publication you'll find at the newsstand. There are still newsstands, right? Our copies were acquired from the MVG racino. I took some artistic liberty with the cover of my copy of the DRF, writing my name across the exercise rider's helmet. I'm thinking now of the potential for sponsorship possibilities.
A very cool 2-second video of the same scene was uploaded to social media by photographer Alex Evers which revealed the near synchronization of the workout. There are quite a few stunning images captured by Alex from Keeneland this past week that he uploaded to his social media. Artistic photographs of horses and particularly Keeneland are definitely worth a few minutes of your time.
In past years I'd spend a quiet, peaceful week with my DRF BC Advance in a leisurely deep dive of handicapping. This year I had just 3 evenings and so my handicapping efforts were truncated and much more intense. One longtime subscriber sought my guidance, I sent out via text message my picks (the critical element) listed in order of preference without showing my work (only of interest to hardcore handicappers).
The "F.D" was a notation to myself as a reminder that the jockey on the #6 horse in this race was the Italian-born Lanfranco "Frankie" Dettori, the greatest jockey in the history of mankind. The final order of finish in this race was #3-#2-#9-#6 with the #8 horse running fifth. This represented the closest I came to selecting the correct order of finish at this year's Breeder's Cup. My wagers on this race were a superfecta box (#fail) and a WIN & PLACE bet on Dettori (#nope).
My bet of the day was on a different Dettori mount. In the (turf) Mile Frankie was on the #3 horse, a 3-year old colt named Lope Y Fernandez. The morning line odds were set at 30-1.
While the untrained eye might look no further than the consecutive 7th-place finishes in the two most recent races, an expert eye would observe those races (as well as the most immediately preceding effort) were against older Group 1 (or highest class) horses. Think college player (the 3-year old horse) competing against the best professional players (older Group 1 horses) and you'll have a better understanding of how to conceptualize this kind of challenge for Lope Y Fernandez. Additionally, those two 7th-place finishes were just 3 and 4 lengths behind the winners and the preceding Group 1 race versus older horses was a 3rd-place finish by less than a length.
Close!
The most significant items of note in the past performances of Lope y Fernandez I circled at left in the photo above; the 117 & 119 figures and the accompanying "fm" with each figure. Those digits represent impressive TimeForm speed ratings (a European variant of the Beyer Speed Figures) and the "fm" denotes the condition of the turf course on those days; "firm." European turf courses are generally softer than North American turf courses and European turf races held on a firm course are rare. What could be learned from the past performances of Lope Y Fernandez is that this colt would relish a comparatively rock-hard North American turf course. And that is exactly what Lope Y Fernandez got at Keeneland on Saturday afternoon. With, again, morning line odds of 30-1. I shared this critical information with another longtime subscriber (and horse player) to these digital pages.
I have included his replies, including a heads-up on a Violence horse entered in an undercard race on Friday at Keeneland, as a humorous illustration for how well my friends know me and my tendencies. My largest wager of the day was a WIN & PLACE bet on Lope Y Fernandez and Dettori.
Lope Y Fernandez went off at odds of 18-1 and ran 3rd by only a length. Check out the payout on your $1 superfecta; $152,804.80! I didn't have it. The winner was Order of Australia, Circus Maximus finished second and you can see Order of Australia, Circus Maximus and Lope Y Fernandez in the Barbara Livingston photo and Alex Evers video shared earlier on this digital page.
With the limitations imposed by the ongoing global pandemic, The B Team convened at Mr B's command center for the day of watching and wagering.
The NBC telecast utilized a multitude of autumnal scenes from Keeneland and horse farms throughout Lexington horse country.
Steve Haskin, formerly of The Blood-Horse, has long been the professional writer/handicapper I respected the most. Still do.
".....you can hit six or seven favorites and lose your shirt. You need at least one, possibly two, [big] price horses if you want to make money." Whether it's Breeders' Cup Saturday or a Tuesday night at old Turfway Park, these are wise words to remember. Mr Haskin went on to write;
Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, The B Team has consistently held that the Dirt Mile is the most difficult race to handicap on what is the most difficult day for handicapping. Aside from the rare instances when a horse is a mile specialist, such as Wise Dan or the filly Goldikova, just about any type of horse - a sprinter, a router, a filly or mare - could steal this race. Haskin's sentiment hits home for The B Team.
Earlier this year I learned of a new, to me, handicapper who really knows her stuff. There are two horse racing networks - TVG and HRTV - that are available on satellite television which I don't have and also as a part of specialized cable television packages to which I've never subscribed and on which, evidently, the intelligent and talented Michelle Yu has long been employed. Who knew? Well, I guess millions of handicappers, but not me. I was introduced to the wisdom of Michelle Yu when the Governor locked down Ohio for two months this spring and I was able to watch horse racing every day of the week on Fox Sports Ohio when I wasn't watching daily marathons of Magnum P.I. Michelle was often a part of the telecast, giving viewers her brilliant insights and winning picks. After I made my own selections for this year's Breeders' Cup, I then sought confirmation bias from Steve Haskin's column and from Michelle Yu who was featured on a Breeders' Cup handicapping podcast.
