This Week In Baseball, The Sequel

This past Sunday, I treated My Dear Elderly Mother to a Reds game and Riverfront Club brunch for Mother's Day.  First, the view from our table:

Next, a view of my table:

Two of my favorite words in the English language; waffle bar.  Maple syrup, white chocolate chips, several scoops of brown sugar.  Does it get any better than that?  I also had a slice of hickory-smoked ham "on the shhiiiide." [credit: The Cowboy, Jeff Brantley]  That, and I also had second helping of waffles.  Eventually I had three helpings of ham.  Plus biscuits with chicken gravy (big pieces of chicken, too).  The brunch of champions.  Carb loading, anyone?  I washed it all down with three of four glasses of ice water.

After stuffing my face like the succulent pig I heartily and repeatedly devoured, I waddled about the Riverfront Club snapping photographs of the panoramic vista that unfolds about the Great American Ball Park:

In the foreground, the southern end of the Fan Zone.  In the middle ground, the lower Banks and the Moerlein Lager House.  In the distance, Paul Brown Stadium - home of the PLARF F.C. of Cincinnati.  At left, unmistakably, is the iconic Roebling Suspension Bridge.  Panning leftward:

The lower portion of the photograph, above, is filled by the newly re-routed portion of Mehring Way and a small section of the new park lands which are being developed along the riverfront.  The Roebling Bridge spans a high, wide and muddy Ohio River, swollen by the heavy and persistent rains we've had this Spring.  Scanning yet further left:

At right, the historic Riverside District of Covington, Kentucky (one of my favorite neighborhoods).  At left-center, the mouth of the Licking River.  At left, the ever-redeveloping entertainment district of Newport, Kentucky.  Tilting ever leftward like the Ohio Republican Party (RINOs, all of 'em):

Looking southeasterly into the heart of Newport-on-the-Levee.

If you find the weather too inclement to sit outside, I recommend taking in the ball game from the Riverfront Club.  Even on a sunny but brisk, windy Sunday holiday, with a near-capacity crowd, there's always a table available in the Riverfront Club:

Out of view, at right, is the Riverfront Club's wishbone-C shaped bar.

This Budweiser sign is among the newest advertisements inside the ballyard.  At center, docked across the river, is the Belle of Cincinnati riverboat.  Reds faithful piled into the Sun Deck, at left, riveted to the action.

Later in the week, Heavy Artillery's DC-based operative - codenamed BIG STRICK - filed the following report from behind enemy lines in Philadelphia: 

What follows is the declassified portion of BIG STRICK's communique;

Made the drive up from D.C. to catch the Reds in action.  Not as many Cincy fans in attendance as in the District.  Not many friendly looks sporting the Reds gear.  I think I will go a little more covert and wear the Skyline shirt for tomorrow's game!

HQ issued the following orders to Agent BIG STRICK:

Commence covert actions at once!

I have placed a letter of reprimand into the file of Tony Cingrani for throwing too many fastballs.

Note, at lower right in the above photo, the Citizen's Bank Park patron wearing Philly Phanatic headgear.  Lame-o.  Unless that's a kid, in which case it's cool.  Kids should always be encouraged to wear funny headgear.  BIG STRICK was able to submit one last spy photo before succumbing to a cheese steak sammich ("Whiz wit?"):

Panoramic!  Just like we like it at Heavy Artillery!

This Week In Baseball closing theme

Preakness Wrap

At post time odds of 3-5, I could not and did not wager on Orb.  But I did like him and was surprised as anyone when he didn't fire on Saturday.  Evenly, is how I think the DRF Preakness Stakes trouble line will read.

That's horse racing.  

For new insight into how difficult it is to win the Triple Crown in our modern era, I will again suggest Gary West's ESPN column, found here.  DRF's Mike Watchmaker sums up this year's Preakness as well as anyone here.

The Second Jewel in the Triple Crown

This Saturday in Baltimore, Maryland at Pimlico Race Course Orb will bid for the second jewel in the Triple Crown when he enters the starting gate in a field of 9 in the 138th running of the Preakness Stakes.

I like Orb and I'm sticking with him on Saturday, probably at odds of 3-5.

Aside from the Long-range Reconnaissance, below, I will use this space this week to post links to interesting columns that pertain to Orb, the Preakness or the Triple Crown in general.  Feel free to check back here, periodically, through Friday as I may add links without any further notice.

First, the masterful Steve Haskin's Blood-Horse column on the history of the Preakness Stakes, or should I say the Dinner Party Stakes?

Preakness Befits its Namesake

Second, an insightful perspective from ESPN's Gary West into why there hasn't been a Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.  I found his data and theory fascinating.

Numbers Never Lie

Stand by for further bulletins.

FRIDAY UPDATE:

If you read Steve Haskin's column, linked above, he mentioned the Codex-Genuine Risk "controversial" Preakness from 1980.  Linked below is a look back at the ABC Wide World of Sports coverage.  It begins with - who else? - Jim McKay.  He tosses to Howard Cosell who proceeds to chew up all the oxygen, in fact I think he's still speaking.  Their expert analyst was Cincinnati native and Hall of Fame jockey Eddie Arcaro (he rode Triple Crown winners Whirlaway and Citation).  You'll see an interview with the late great actor Jack Klugman who was the owner of 1980 Preakness entrant Jaklin Klugman, and a winners' circle interview with a young - nearly unrecognizable to modern fans -  D. Wayne Lukas, Hall of Fame trainer of Codex.

Genuine Risk was a filly who won the 1980 Kentucky Derby.  She went off the 2-1 favorite in the Preakness.  She became the first filly to finish in the money in three legs of the Triple Crown.

For fans of the old school stylings of ABC's Wide World of Sports, this 48-minute video is a welcome time machine to a simpler time.  By simpler, I mean yellow WWS jackets and, by modern standards, low-tech video graphics:

ABC Wide World of Sports 1980 Preakness

Long-range Reconnaissance

Below are three photos from Pimlico on Preakness Day, 1943.

The 1943 Preakness was won by Count Fleet, the son of a Kentucky Derby winner named Reign Count.  Count Fleet's two-year old campaign started inauspiciously with a string of losses.  And then, as so often seems to be the case with talent and/or genius, like a light switch being thrown Count Fleet suddenly developed into a power house.  At Belmont Park in 1942 Count Fleet won the Champagne Stakes by six lengths and set a track record.  He equaled a Pimlico track record in winning the Pimlico Futurity.  Count Fleet won the Walden Stakes by 30 lengths.  When 1942 ended, Count Fleet had won 10 of his 15 starts and earned Two-Year Old Horse of the Year honors.

In 1943 Count Fleet was undefeated.  He won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, he won the Kentucky Derby by 3 lengths, and the Preakness Stakes by 8 lengths.  Before going on to Belmont Park for the Belmont Stakes, Count Fleet raced in and won the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct.  Count Fleet then won the Belmont Stakes - and the Triple Crown - when he vanquished the field by a then-record 25 lengths (a record margin of victory that stood until Secretariat won the Belmont by 31 lengths in 1973).

Count Fleet was named Horse of the Year for 1943.  He retired with a lifetime record of 16-4-1 in 21 starts.

Count Fleet sired the 1951 Kentucky Derby winner, Count Turf.

Here's a look, below, at Pimlico on Preakness Day, 1943.

Below, Count Fleet driving across the Preakness finish line:

"To the victor go the spoils."  Below, Count Fleet draped in Black-Eyed Susans:

How 'boutcha, Rookwood?

My Derby Day weekend was capped off by a Sunday afternoon visit to the open house hosted by Rookwood Pottery. The highlight of which was the exclusive, behind-the-scenes tour of the facility by their newly-hired production manager ["PM"], none other than The Incomparable Joe Wilhelm.  In the photo below, Mrs Incomparable Joe Wilhelm captures us posing just outside the PM's office:

Great photography, Mary!

Jo-Jo's tour was highly informative, sensorially stimulating, energetic and - best of all - funny.  The PM gave our V.I.P. tour group consisting of Townie family and friends a demonstration of how to use a press:

The end result was a masterpiece in clay.  Joey proudly displayed the product of his toil, a not-yet-on-sale Miami University commemorative tile:

Joe's brother-in-law Roscoe and his niece Pasqualina and nephew Lefty examine the piece in close detail.  The rest of us stood in awe of Joe's unparalleled creative talent.  Well, he did press a button and pull a lever.  The workshop was abuzz with activity and jam-packed with items awaiting the deft flourishes of Rookwood's in-house artists:

We watched as one artist put the finishing touches on a 12-panel piece [not photographed] for one of Rookwood's benefactors.  The 12 large tiles were of an outdoor scene; brook, evergreen trees, elk, assorted geomorphic forms and estimated (by the artist) to be valued at $20,000.  Around one corner and down another hall we looked in on Rookwood's vast array of color samples, of which I only photographed a fraction:

With a wink of his eye and a twist of his head, Jo-Jo laid his finger aside his nose and said; "Now dash away, dash away all" and led us into the secret vaults of Rookwood:

DJ and Joyce pepper their boy with inquisitive queries.  Mostly, The Hit Doctor wanted to know where were the complimentary refreshments and if the Reds were still beating the Cubs (they were).  DJ also may or may not have identified a flaw in Reds third baseman Todd Frazier's timing mechanism and suggested that Reds shortstop Zack Cozart adjust his batting stance.  

Behold!!  The Rookwood Archives:

Row upon row of shelves containing the innumerable pieces (and molds) of Rookwood's glorious history.  Here's a close-up of a mold for one of the pieces currently on sale:

The Rookwood apple is an attractive display piece and offers the functionality of a paper weight.  Our extensive tour concluded in front of a massive fireplace surround preparing to be shipped-off to parts unknown, valued at two-and-a-half Hondas:

My Dear Elderly Mother provides scale for this impressive, outsized piece. Of course, the scale may be a bit deceptive due to the diminutive size of My Dear Elderly Mother.  Everything you see here is a product of Rookwood's artisans, excluding Mom - of course - but including the mantle.  Of note, the many faces of historical figures from Cincinnati's past that were reproduced onto the tiles through a new process innovated at Rookwood by which they are stenciled onto the tiles with glaze before being fired.  Ingenious!  Above the mantle, a scene depicting various critters found in the wild but not found in Over-The-Rhine, at least not since 1750 A.D.  Here's a close-up of..... umm....

.....a wolf?  With flower petals for eyes?  And a chain clenched in its teeth?  Symbolizing the.... err.... unbreakable unity of.... umm.... delicate yet savage fragrance.... uh.... OK, I give up.  I'm glad someone in this world - or Cincinnati - has artistic vision, I certainly am incapable of such fanciful flights of fantasy.  That's just one more credit to the folks at Rookwood.  

After spending hundreds of dollars in the gift shop (hey, somebody has to fund Joe's salary!), we exited Rookwood's facility and stepped back into the Wild West that is the modern Over-The-Rhine. Standing in the center of the roadway, in a steady rain, I dared the ungovernable denizens of OTR to run me over (or shoot at me or stab me or rob me or....) as I photographed this old church which occupies the northern extremity of Race Street:

At left, My Dear Elderly Mother (blue jacket, hood up against the rain) attempts to find an unlocked door on my Jeep in which to deposit her bounty of Mother's Day gifts. Note that on this downhill street, only one vehicle has it's front wheels turned towards the curb. The rest of the vehicles parked on Race Street serve to demonstrate the outlaw nature of OTR's criminal element!  OK, OK.  These were actually the parked cars of Rookwood's patrons.

Driving away from Rookwood, down Race Street, one cannot help but envision how beautiful OTR was..... one hundred-plus years ago.  Grand residential architecture, private courtyards, long-abandoned churches of monumental size that are - seemingly - so numerous they must cast shadows upon one another, tree-shaded sidewalks.  It really is something worth seeing, if only for it's ability to transport you to a distant time in Cincinnati's past. 

Just don't go see it after sunset.

Long-range Reconnaissance

So long as the subject of OTR's glory days has been raised, here's a look back at Over-the-Rhine circa 1905:

Music Hall (above) was completed in 1878 and it is haunted.  So said the late Erich Kunzel and that's good enough for me!

Music Hall looms in the background of this photograph of Washington Park.  Prior to its redevelopment into a park by the city of Cincinnati, this parcel of land had been a cemetery.  It, too, must therefore be haunted.  The monument above is of German native, Illinois resident and Civil War veteran Friedrich Hecker who, at various times, commanded the 24th and 82nd Illinois Infantry.  Hecker was a radical Republican who opposed the re-nomination of President Lincoln.

Rookwood Pottery was founded in 1880 by Maria Longworth Nichols Storer.  The Longworths settled in Cincinnati by 1808 and were vintners.  The family became 1%ers through real estate and rose to political power; one Longworth became a member of the Ohio state supreme court (1881-1883), another - Nicholas Longworth - served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1903-1913, 1915-1931 and served as Speaker of the House from 1925-1931 and eventually married Alice Roosevelt, daughter of President Teddy Roosevelt.  The photo above purports to be of "The Longworth Home."  Which Longworth I do not know nor do I know where in Cincinnati this house was/is.  Cool looking place, though! 

For The Old Kentucky Home Far Away

The one thing everyone wants to know, first and foremost, is how I did in the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby;  Weep no more my lady, Oh weep no more today!

$20 to Win and Place on the #16 horse, Orb.  Orb went off as the second choice among the wagering public at odds of 5-1 (the morning line on Orb was set at 7-2) and paid me $202.

As was written about on the ol' web page in years past, I have long been a backer of those Kentucky Derby entrants which began their Derby Trail in Florida, racing in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Grade I Florida Derby (both run at Gulfstream Park).  This year, Orb won both and did so from a stalking position which is the preferred strategy for success in the Kentucky Derby.  In the days before Keeneland changed its racing surface in 2006 from Mother Nature's own dirt to the synthetic, artificial concoction known as PolyTrack (PolyTrack is to horse racing what Astroturf was to Major League Baseball, an evil abomination), those horses exiting Florida with Kentucky Derby hopes would make one final stop on the Derby Trail, at Keeneland, to race in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes.  However, with the advent of PolyTrack racing, By'n by hard times come a-knocking at the door and the best Derby hopefuls now skip the Blue Grass Stakes.

The sun was shining bright on The B Team Syndicate's old Turfway Park home, but my Derby Day wagering got off to a rough start.

The Old Master of the Turf likes to be early to everything, all the time.  I like to be early too, but his concept of being early was born in the Great Depression and honed to a knife-like edge in the Korean War.  "Early" for Mr B is hours earlier than what most would conceive.  The first post at Churchill Downs on Saturday was 10:30 am.  We were seated at our table in Turfway Park's Homestretch Room before 10 am.  Consider, the first graded stakes race (Race 6; the 19th running of the Twin Spires Turf Sprint [Grade III]) wouldn't go off until 1:19 pm and the Derby itself was still more than 8 hours distant.  Here's one look at the Homestretch Room from our table:

The photo above captures the proverbial quiet before the storm; The spacious area practically unoccupied save for The B Team Syndicate, brilliant sunlight streaming in through the wall of windows, A/C cranked up to Der Blitzkrieg levels [credit; Al Bundy].  

Soon we got down to serious handicapping.  My own efforts in this area were significantly aided by one of my sources deep within the Reds organization, codenamed CAMPBELL, who graciously emailed me a link, on Friday morning, to printable past performances for the entire race card for both Friday and Saturday.  That selfless act merits a 21-gun salute from Heavy Artillery.  With those past performances hot off my printer, I spent a few hours at the office on Friday handicapping the first half of Saturday's Pick Six.  Later on Friday evening, The Old Master of the Turf delivered to me a copy of Saturday's Daily Racing Form and I, back home at The Ranch, handicapped the last half of the Pick Six.  Foreshadowing; It would be a "Tale of Two Pick Six Halves" on Saturday.

My Friday handicapping simply served to "throw out" horses.  Saturday morning, in the Homestretch Room, I finalized my picks for the six legs of the Pick Six which ended, of course, with the Kentucky Derby.  These picks would also become the basis upon which my individual race wagering strategies would materialize.  As a result, I did not handicap/wager the first five (non-graded stakes) races on the Derby Day undercard.  The Old Master of the Turf and Lou, codenamed B1 and B2, respectively, did handicap/wager the undercard and had a mixed bag of results; The Old Master hit a trifecta in one race, an exacta in another and was off to a rolling start. B2, not so much.

Our handicapping efforts were complicated by the steady, heavy rains that were inundating Churchill Downs even before the first race went off.  Trying to project race outcomes in advance is a challenging enough, but fun, task under the best of race conditions.  Projecting just how wet, sloppy and/or muddy the racing surface may be after it's soaked by several hours of rain adds a whole magnitude of complexity to the task.

The Old Master was so focused on handicapping each race as it came up, he did not offer his own input into The B Team Syndicate's Pick Six.  Neither did Lou.  They each pitched in for their share of the ticket, but aside from some ticket-shaping suggestions from Lou, this year's B Team Syndicate Pick Six was all my own creation.  In the photo below, you can see my first draft of Pick Six selections written on one of the blank pages of Brisnet past performances from CAMPBELL (sticking out from my souvenir race program):

The race which proved most perplexing to me was not the Derby but rather Race 9, the 79th running of the Churchill Downs (Grade II).  Nine mostly evenly-matched horses were divided nearly evenly along two lines; those which I favored had the track been dry/FAST and those which I favored had the track been "off" and, with one exception, they were all different horses.  Hence my inclusion under Race 9 (image above) of three horses for an "off" track and three for Fast.  Lou suggested using all five (one horse, the #5, I liked under either condition).  I used the lower row of preferences on my draft for my own "back-up ticket."

The Derby Day Pick Six kicked off with Race 6 and so, once the results of the fifth race were OFFICIAL, Lou and I pounced on one of the automated machines and crafted our Pick Six.  When we went to make our wager, the track condition was still officially listed as FAST.  Two minutes later, when we sat back down at our table, the Churchill main track and turf course, both, had been downgraded to GOOD.  I scanned the Race 6 odds board and having locked visual targeting on the current odds for the Race 6 field I instantly realized a critical mistake;  My own first choice for Race 6 was the #8 horse, Icon Ike, who was also the odds-on favorite and we had intended to use Icon Ike on the Pick Six yet somehow, inexplicably, I erroneously jotted down onto my Pick Six draft the number 3 instead of the number 8.  I wanted no part of the #3 horse, and here I'd created a Pick Six ticket on which the first leg of the wager did not include the favorite.  I went from placid to nuclear detonation in a fractional second.  The only thing for me to do was to dig deep into my own bankroll and fund a third Pick Six ticket to cover for my mistake.  The Old Master and Lou, had they known I was going to bankroll a "fixed" ticket, would have said to forget about it but I couldn't do that. 

The net result, when the starting gate opened for Race 6, I was down.  Down financially (a little) and morally (a lot).

As the Race 6 field turned for home, the favorite Icon Ike was no where to be found but the other horse I had (correctly) included on our Pick Six, the #1 horse Southern Dude (morning line 10-1 odds; no relation to the noted paleontologist from North Carolina), was on the lead.  Ranging up on the outside of Southern Dude was the race's second biggest longshot, the #7 Berlino Di Tiger.  Southern Dude wilted as if from being out too long in the uncharted territories of Arizona/New Mexico on a paleontological dig and our Pick Six suffered the slings and arrows of outrageous thoroughbred-wagering fortune.  Losing in the first leg of a Pick Six is going to happen.  It has happened, before, to The B Team and it will certainly happen again in the future.  Normally that kind of occurrence would be cause only for a mild wave of disappointment.  But I was mad at myself for making a mistake on the ticket and, well, maybe I was just looking for some other reason to be mad, too.  Losing deep into the homestretch just compounded my dark mood. Really just angry with myself, no thermometer yet invented could have read my temperature.  I was boiling.  Not that it mattered, frankly, because we'd have never included that particular longshot winner but the bottom line [credit; Stone Cold Steve Austin] was that just one race deep into the Pick Six and we were out of it (at least in terms of being eligible for a full payout).  My Exacta, Trifecta and Pick Three all were kaput [credit; Baron Von Richthofen], too.

What a way to start my Derby Day wagering!  Down big and mad at myself.

But you can't stay mad forever and I wouldn't.

Race 7 (the 27th running of the Humana Distaff [Grade II]), the main track was downgraded to SLOPPY and my own Win/Place, Exacta, Trifecta, and Pick Three all went down in flames and The B Team Syndicate's Pick Six was officially D.O.A., now disqualified from even a 5 of 6 consolation payout, as were my other two Pick Six back-up tickets.  When it rains, it pours.  See what I mean?

On the drive to Turfway Park that morning we were listening to Derby coverage on WHAS 840 AM out of Louisville, Kentucky.  One of the commentators described the pending rain this way; When it starts it doesn't stop.  I think that would make a great name for a thoroughbred.  Regrettably, even condensing it to Whenitstartsitdoesntstop is more letters than the NTRA allows.

For Race 8, the 28th running of the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile, the grass course was further downgraded to Yielding.  My Win/Place selection finished fourth and my Exacta combination finished third-fourth.  My Pick Three and my Pick Four both were dead immediately.  Small solace that my two horses hit the board, my pockets were emptying by the handful.

My Friday morning handicapping was proving to have been woefully deficient.

Race 9 was to be the turning point, but in ways that I would not realize  until hours later.  This race had me so uncertain that, as stated above, I'd selected five different horses pending the weather/track conditions.  At Lou's suggestion we'd used all five for the Pick Six.  For my own wagers, I went with my "off" track preferences.  My FAST track preferences finished  one-two.  My "off" track preferences were themselves "off."  My Friday evening handicapping - for a FAST track - was dead on.  What you cannot know until race results/times are OFFICIAL, is just how much the rain may be affecting the track.  Sometimes SLOPPY can still race like FAST.  That was evidently the case at this stage in the afternoon.  Churchill's main track is famous for being able to take a lot of rain without having any deleterious effects.

But it was still raining at Churchill Downs.

Although our Pick Six was dead in the water in terms of payouts, for this fourth leg (Race 9) we finally had a winner in the #9 horse, Delaunay.

With an hour before the next race (as the afternoon wears on, the time between races on Derby Day expands to allow the massive, increasing crowds at Churchill time to make their wagers), and me having my brains beat out, I needed some fresh air.  I took a walk outside.  The sun was shining brightly (in stark contrast to Louisville), it was pleasantly warm and there was a brisk breeze that was invigorating.  The corn top's ripe and the meadow's in full bloom, while the birds make music all the day.  I thought happy thoughts, checked out fillies (nudge nudge, wink wink) and made my way to the place where I hoped my having visited would change my luck; the Turfway Park winners circle.

I went back inside for Race 10, the 27th running of the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic.  Mary Wilhelm's favorite horse, Wise Dan, was the only horse in the Turf Classic that I included on The B Team Syndicate's Pick Six.  As I told Mrs Incomparable Joe Wilhelm, betting on Wise Dan is free money.  Wise Dan was the 2012 Horse of the Year, had won 14 of his 21 lifetime starts and earned over $3.7 million dollars.  Make that has won 15 of his 22 lifetime starts and earned over $4 million dollars because he cruised to an easy victory in the Turf Classic.  Wise Dan went off as the heavy favorite at odds of 3-5 and I loaded up on him: 

Wise Dan is free money.  Bet him with both hands.

My Derby Exacta included the #5 Normandy Invasion with Orb.  Making the turn for home, Normandy Invasion seized the beachhead - I mean the lead - and charged into the homestretch.  Instantly I turned to The Old Master, who played the same Exacta, and said "The jockey made his move too soon."  Normandy Invasion put up a heroic fight but ultimately faded to fourth.  Earlier that morning, deep in our horse racing conversations, I said to B1 & B2; I don't get beat by post position draws or track conditions or track biases... I get beat by my own jockeys.  The Daily Racing Form's Mike Watchmaker made a similar observation in his Derby Day live blog [found at DRF Watchmaker ]:

One other point. I think Normandy Invasion, who finished fourth, was second best. I think Normandy Invasion's move to the lead into the stretch might have been a touch premature. It did not cost him the victory, but it might have cost him second money.

That's exactly how I had handicapped the Derby - Orb on top, Normandy Invasion second - and I think most knowledgeable horsemen (and women) view the Derby's finish in the same way.  The best horse doesn't always win, and sometimes the second-best horse doesn't run second.

For my Derby Trifecta I added the #3 Revolutionary.

Revolutionary finished third.

My Derby Exacta finished First-Fourth, my Derby Trifecta finished First-Third-Fourth.  Tantalizingly close for any race, especially so for a 19-horse Kentucky Derby.

Once the dust (or slop) had settled, my big Kentucky Derby score got me back to almost even; down $32 on the day.  Pretty good considering how far down I was, diving three tickets deep into the Pick Six and spitting the bit [horse racing term] on all my Exactas, Trifectas, Pick Threes and a single Pick Four.

I mentioned above how the Race 9 result proved to be a turning point, but one that I did not come to understand until much later.  In one respect, this was where I had begun handicapping Friday evening after taking a break from my handicapping earlier that morning and while I wagered the wrong set of horses ["off" instead of FAST], From Race 9 through Race 11 I handicapped all winners (and The B Team Syndicate's Derby Day Pick Six ended up 3 for 6, having hit the final three legs of the wager).  Race 9 ultimately proved to be the turning point that I missed as had I bet my top FAST preference, the #9 Delaunay, for a track which was SLOPPY but still playing FAST and also bet my top two preferences in the Race 9 Exacta (the #6 Pass The Dice was my second preference for a FAST track - see Pick Six draft image above; I was playing Win/Place and Exactas every race), Delaunay paid $5.80 to Win, $3.80 to Place and the $2 Delaunay-Pass The Dice Exacta paid $50.20.  Finally, had I used Delaunay in the first leg of my final Pick Three (which concluded with the Derby) instead of my "off" track preferences, I'd have cashed that Pick Three ticket (along with Wise Dan and Orb) which paid $74.  Betting Delaunay to Win/Place would have, eventually - along with my successive winnings - gotten me back to even on the day, the Race 9 Exacta would have put me into the black and the Derby-wrapping Pick Three would have put me well ahead on the day.

Of course, it didn't work out that way.

Just betting - or not betting - one horse can make or break your whole day.  Newsflash; Dog bites man. 

Still, when I consider how my day began; Making a mistake in creating the Pick Six, being angry with myself, suffering bad beats early on, being down big, but ultimately cashing big winning tickets in the Turf Classic and in the Kentucky Derby (the most difficult race to handicap), and concluding with a respectable (but worthless) 3 of 6 Pick Six ticket..... I feel very good about how things went.  And, in the final analysis, I had a good day and had fun with The B Team.  That's what it's all about.

I drop more than $32 every time I go to a Reds game on tickets, parking, food and that's just a 3 hour event.  Thanks to The Old Master of the Turf, Derby Day is a 10-hour marathon.  Dinner out on a Friday night can run more than $32.  This isn't justification, this is realization.

The B Team had a great day.  My -$32 made me the lone B in the red.  The Old Master cashed several tickets on the day, including having Orb to Win, and exited Turfway with about $400 more than he walked in with.  Lou decided to parlay his Race 9 and Race 10 winnings into a Kentucky Derby straight Win bet on Orb that paid over $500.  The B Team's combined winnings, approaching $1,000 on the day, paled in comparison to The Old Master's cosa nostra buddy who joined us at our Homestretch Room table.  In addition to hitting handfuls of Trifectas at Churchill Downs and, via simulcast, Hollywood Park and Belmont Park, he also hit the Kentucky Derby Superfecta which paid over $6,900.  He had "a piece," having bet just .50-cents instead of $2 and so cashed-in on the Derby alone at nearly two Grand.  And thus had IRS paperwork to fill out before being paid.

We will sing one song for the old Kentucky home, for the old Kentucky home far away.

Additional photos:

Tools of the Trade; Daily Racing Form, program, pen.

Impressionistic [read; Blurry] photo of The Old Master of the Turf checking the odds board just minutes before hitting the Kentucky Derby.

Fantastically illustrative photo of the 2013 Kentucky Derby courtesy of your good friends at Fox News.  Capacity crowd, sloppy track, dense spray of mud, rain-obscured Twin Spires.

If you're scoring at home or if you're by yourself [credit; Keith Olbermann], I've had the Kentucky Derby winner in:

2013 - Orb

2007 - Street Sense

2006 - Barbaro

2001 - Monarchos

1991 - Strike The Gold

1989 - Sunday Silence

1984 - Swale

..... and cashed Place money on second-place finishers in:

2011 - Nehro

2003 - Empire Maker

2000 - Aptitude

1997 - Captain Bodgit

1996 - Cavonnier

..... and cashed a handful of Exactas/Trifectas.

In the days following a big race day, such as the Breeders' Cup or the Kentucky Derby, I like to review my notes and my handicapping and watch video replays of the races in order to sharpen my skills.  Typically my last action before closing the Daily Racing Form and moving on to other pursuits is to measure my own picks against the experts.  Let me say that as a lifelong reader of the DRF I have respect for all their analysts.  In no way am I casting aspersions upon their experience, knowledge or credibility.  Rather, along with few others, I consider the staff at the DRF to be the gold standard for the venerable art of turf writing.  For the Kentucky Derby alone, the DRF assembled 25 of their best and brightest and asked them to give their top four preferences for the Derby.  Applying good old fashioned logic, we understand that their picks are listed in order of preference - that is to say, the horse listed first was their pick to Win, the horse listed second was their pick to Place (and also the back half of an Exacta), etc.  As I like to highlight for my loyal subscribers each year, my ability to select winners is just as good as the best that the experts are able to manage and that my rate of success routinely exceeds most of the experts. 

Here's the breakdown for the 2013 Kentucky Derby:

11 of the 25 picked Orb to Win, just as I did.  My Reily math informs me that 44% of DRF writers made the correct pick.  That's impressive!  Yet 56% of DRF writers did not correctly pick the Derby winner.  Therefore, in the narrow spectrum of selecting the Derby winner, I beat 56% of the experts.

Three of my top four preferences hit the board for a money finish in any order.  None of the DRF writers correctly identified all four in any order.  Ergo, not a single DRF writer surpassed me in this category.  7 of the 25 DRF analysts correctly identified three of the first four finishers in this year's Derby, or 28%.  Thus, my having selected three of the first four finishers (in any order) outperformed 72% of the experts!

Credit where credit is due, only one of the 25 DRF staffers identified three of the top four finishers as well as picking the longshot runner-up, Golden Soul.  That was DRF analyst David Grening.  This I did not do.  Therefore, David Grening is the only DRF writer among their 25 who surpassed my Kentucky Derby picks.

How ya like me now?