For The Old Kentucky Home Far Away

The one thing everyone wants to know, first and foremost, is how I did in the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby;  Weep no more my lady, Oh weep no more today!

$20 to Win and Place on the #16 horse, Orb.  Orb went off as the second choice among the wagering public at odds of 5-1 (the morning line on Orb was set at 7-2) and paid me $202.

As was written about on the ol' web page in years past, I have long been a backer of those Kentucky Derby entrants which began their Derby Trail in Florida, racing in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Grade I Florida Derby (both run at Gulfstream Park).  This year, Orb won both and did so from a stalking position which is the preferred strategy for success in the Kentucky Derby.  In the days before Keeneland changed its racing surface in 2006 from Mother Nature's own dirt to the synthetic, artificial concoction known as PolyTrack (PolyTrack is to horse racing what Astroturf was to Major League Baseball, an evil abomination), those horses exiting Florida with Kentucky Derby hopes would make one final stop on the Derby Trail, at Keeneland, to race in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes.  However, with the advent of PolyTrack racing, By'n by hard times come a-knocking at the door and the best Derby hopefuls now skip the Blue Grass Stakes.

The sun was shining bright on The B Team Syndicate's old Turfway Park home, but my Derby Day wagering got off to a rough start.

The Old Master of the Turf likes to be early to everything, all the time.  I like to be early too, but his concept of being early was born in the Great Depression and honed to a knife-like edge in the Korean War.  "Early" for Mr B is hours earlier than what most would conceive.  The first post at Churchill Downs on Saturday was 10:30 am.  We were seated at our table in Turfway Park's Homestretch Room before 10 am.  Consider, the first graded stakes race (Race 6; the 19th running of the Twin Spires Turf Sprint [Grade III]) wouldn't go off until 1:19 pm and the Derby itself was still more than 8 hours distant.  Here's one look at the Homestretch Room from our table:

The photo above captures the proverbial quiet before the storm; The spacious area practically unoccupied save for The B Team Syndicate, brilliant sunlight streaming in through the wall of windows, A/C cranked up to Der Blitzkrieg levels [credit; Al Bundy].  

Soon we got down to serious handicapping.  My own efforts in this area were significantly aided by one of my sources deep within the Reds organization, codenamed CAMPBELL, who graciously emailed me a link, on Friday morning, to printable past performances for the entire race card for both Friday and Saturday.  That selfless act merits a 21-gun salute from Heavy Artillery.  With those past performances hot off my printer, I spent a few hours at the office on Friday handicapping the first half of Saturday's Pick Six.  Later on Friday evening, The Old Master of the Turf delivered to me a copy of Saturday's Daily Racing Form and I, back home at The Ranch, handicapped the last half of the Pick Six.  Foreshadowing; It would be a "Tale of Two Pick Six Halves" on Saturday.

My Friday handicapping simply served to "throw out" horses.  Saturday morning, in the Homestretch Room, I finalized my picks for the six legs of the Pick Six which ended, of course, with the Kentucky Derby.  These picks would also become the basis upon which my individual race wagering strategies would materialize.  As a result, I did not handicap/wager the first five (non-graded stakes) races on the Derby Day undercard.  The Old Master of the Turf and Lou, codenamed B1 and B2, respectively, did handicap/wager the undercard and had a mixed bag of results; The Old Master hit a trifecta in one race, an exacta in another and was off to a rolling start. B2, not so much.

Our handicapping efforts were complicated by the steady, heavy rains that were inundating Churchill Downs even before the first race went off.  Trying to project race outcomes in advance is a challenging enough, but fun, task under the best of race conditions.  Projecting just how wet, sloppy and/or muddy the racing surface may be after it's soaked by several hours of rain adds a whole magnitude of complexity to the task.

The Old Master was so focused on handicapping each race as it came up, he did not offer his own input into The B Team Syndicate's Pick Six.  Neither did Lou.  They each pitched in for their share of the ticket, but aside from some ticket-shaping suggestions from Lou, this year's B Team Syndicate Pick Six was all my own creation.  In the photo below, you can see my first draft of Pick Six selections written on one of the blank pages of Brisnet past performances from CAMPBELL (sticking out from my souvenir race program):

The race which proved most perplexing to me was not the Derby but rather Race 9, the 79th running of the Churchill Downs (Grade II).  Nine mostly evenly-matched horses were divided nearly evenly along two lines; those which I favored had the track been dry/FAST and those which I favored had the track been "off" and, with one exception, they were all different horses.  Hence my inclusion under Race 9 (image above) of three horses for an "off" track and three for Fast.  Lou suggested using all five (one horse, the #5, I liked under either condition).  I used the lower row of preferences on my draft for my own "back-up ticket."

The Derby Day Pick Six kicked off with Race 6 and so, once the results of the fifth race were OFFICIAL, Lou and I pounced on one of the automated machines and crafted our Pick Six.  When we went to make our wager, the track condition was still officially listed as FAST.  Two minutes later, when we sat back down at our table, the Churchill main track and turf course, both, had been downgraded to GOOD.  I scanned the Race 6 odds board and having locked visual targeting on the current odds for the Race 6 field I instantly realized a critical mistake;  My own first choice for Race 6 was the #8 horse, Icon Ike, who was also the odds-on favorite and we had intended to use Icon Ike on the Pick Six yet somehow, inexplicably, I erroneously jotted down onto my Pick Six draft the number 3 instead of the number 8.  I wanted no part of the #3 horse, and here I'd created a Pick Six ticket on which the first leg of the wager did not include the favorite.  I went from placid to nuclear detonation in a fractional second.  The only thing for me to do was to dig deep into my own bankroll and fund a third Pick Six ticket to cover for my mistake.  The Old Master and Lou, had they known I was going to bankroll a "fixed" ticket, would have said to forget about it but I couldn't do that. 

The net result, when the starting gate opened for Race 6, I was down.  Down financially (a little) and morally (a lot).

As the Race 6 field turned for home, the favorite Icon Ike was no where to be found but the other horse I had (correctly) included on our Pick Six, the #1 horse Southern Dude (morning line 10-1 odds; no relation to the noted paleontologist from North Carolina), was on the lead.  Ranging up on the outside of Southern Dude was the race's second biggest longshot, the #7 Berlino Di Tiger.  Southern Dude wilted as if from being out too long in the uncharted territories of Arizona/New Mexico on a paleontological dig and our Pick Six suffered the slings and arrows of outrageous thoroughbred-wagering fortune.  Losing in the first leg of a Pick Six is going to happen.  It has happened, before, to The B Team and it will certainly happen again in the future.  Normally that kind of occurrence would be cause only for a mild wave of disappointment.  But I was mad at myself for making a mistake on the ticket and, well, maybe I was just looking for some other reason to be mad, too.  Losing deep into the homestretch just compounded my dark mood. Really just angry with myself, no thermometer yet invented could have read my temperature.  I was boiling.  Not that it mattered, frankly, because we'd have never included that particular longshot winner but the bottom line [credit; Stone Cold Steve Austin] was that just one race deep into the Pick Six and we were out of it (at least in terms of being eligible for a full payout).  My Exacta, Trifecta and Pick Three all were kaput [credit; Baron Von Richthofen], too.

What a way to start my Derby Day wagering!  Down big and mad at myself.

But you can't stay mad forever and I wouldn't.

Race 7 (the 27th running of the Humana Distaff [Grade II]), the main track was downgraded to SLOPPY and my own Win/Place, Exacta, Trifecta, and Pick Three all went down in flames and The B Team Syndicate's Pick Six was officially D.O.A., now disqualified from even a 5 of 6 consolation payout, as were my other two Pick Six back-up tickets.  When it rains, it pours.  See what I mean?

On the drive to Turfway Park that morning we were listening to Derby coverage on WHAS 840 AM out of Louisville, Kentucky.  One of the commentators described the pending rain this way; When it starts it doesn't stop.  I think that would make a great name for a thoroughbred.  Regrettably, even condensing it to Whenitstartsitdoesntstop is more letters than the NTRA allows.

For Race 8, the 28th running of the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile, the grass course was further downgraded to Yielding.  My Win/Place selection finished fourth and my Exacta combination finished third-fourth.  My Pick Three and my Pick Four both were dead immediately.  Small solace that my two horses hit the board, my pockets were emptying by the handful.

My Friday morning handicapping was proving to have been woefully deficient.

Race 9 was to be the turning point, but in ways that I would not realize  until hours later.  This race had me so uncertain that, as stated above, I'd selected five different horses pending the weather/track conditions.  At Lou's suggestion we'd used all five for the Pick Six.  For my own wagers, I went with my "off" track preferences.  My FAST track preferences finished  one-two.  My "off" track preferences were themselves "off."  My Friday evening handicapping - for a FAST track - was dead on.  What you cannot know until race results/times are OFFICIAL, is just how much the rain may be affecting the track.  Sometimes SLOPPY can still race like FAST.  That was evidently the case at this stage in the afternoon.  Churchill's main track is famous for being able to take a lot of rain without having any deleterious effects.

But it was still raining at Churchill Downs.

Although our Pick Six was dead in the water in terms of payouts, for this fourth leg (Race 9) we finally had a winner in the #9 horse, Delaunay.

With an hour before the next race (as the afternoon wears on, the time between races on Derby Day expands to allow the massive, increasing crowds at Churchill time to make their wagers), and me having my brains beat out, I needed some fresh air.  I took a walk outside.  The sun was shining brightly (in stark contrast to Louisville), it was pleasantly warm and there was a brisk breeze that was invigorating.  The corn top's ripe and the meadow's in full bloom, while the birds make music all the day.  I thought happy thoughts, checked out fillies (nudge nudge, wink wink) and made my way to the place where I hoped my having visited would change my luck; the Turfway Park winners circle.

I went back inside for Race 10, the 27th running of the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic.  Mary Wilhelm's favorite horse, Wise Dan, was the only horse in the Turf Classic that I included on The B Team Syndicate's Pick Six.  As I told Mrs Incomparable Joe Wilhelm, betting on Wise Dan is free money.  Wise Dan was the 2012 Horse of the Year, had won 14 of his 21 lifetime starts and earned over $3.7 million dollars.  Make that has won 15 of his 22 lifetime starts and earned over $4 million dollars because he cruised to an easy victory in the Turf Classic.  Wise Dan went off as the heavy favorite at odds of 3-5 and I loaded up on him: 

Wise Dan is free money.  Bet him with both hands.

My Derby Exacta included the #5 Normandy Invasion with Orb.  Making the turn for home, Normandy Invasion seized the beachhead - I mean the lead - and charged into the homestretch.  Instantly I turned to The Old Master, who played the same Exacta, and said "The jockey made his move too soon."  Normandy Invasion put up a heroic fight but ultimately faded to fourth.  Earlier that morning, deep in our horse racing conversations, I said to B1 & B2; I don't get beat by post position draws or track conditions or track biases... I get beat by my own jockeys.  The Daily Racing Form's Mike Watchmaker made a similar observation in his Derby Day live blog [found at DRF Watchmaker ]:

One other point. I think Normandy Invasion, who finished fourth, was second best. I think Normandy Invasion's move to the lead into the stretch might have been a touch premature. It did not cost him the victory, but it might have cost him second money.

That's exactly how I had handicapped the Derby - Orb on top, Normandy Invasion second - and I think most knowledgeable horsemen (and women) view the Derby's finish in the same way.  The best horse doesn't always win, and sometimes the second-best horse doesn't run second.

For my Derby Trifecta I added the #3 Revolutionary.

Revolutionary finished third.

My Derby Exacta finished First-Fourth, my Derby Trifecta finished First-Third-Fourth.  Tantalizingly close for any race, especially so for a 19-horse Kentucky Derby.

Once the dust (or slop) had settled, my big Kentucky Derby score got me back to almost even; down $32 on the day.  Pretty good considering how far down I was, diving three tickets deep into the Pick Six and spitting the bit [horse racing term] on all my Exactas, Trifectas, Pick Threes and a single Pick Four.

I mentioned above how the Race 9 result proved to be a turning point, but one that I did not come to understand until much later.  In one respect, this was where I had begun handicapping Friday evening after taking a break from my handicapping earlier that morning and while I wagered the wrong set of horses ["off" instead of FAST], From Race 9 through Race 11 I handicapped all winners (and The B Team Syndicate's Derby Day Pick Six ended up 3 for 6, having hit the final three legs of the wager).  Race 9 ultimately proved to be the turning point that I missed as had I bet my top FAST preference, the #9 Delaunay, for a track which was SLOPPY but still playing FAST and also bet my top two preferences in the Race 9 Exacta (the #6 Pass The Dice was my second preference for a FAST track - see Pick Six draft image above; I was playing Win/Place and Exactas every race), Delaunay paid $5.80 to Win, $3.80 to Place and the $2 Delaunay-Pass The Dice Exacta paid $50.20.  Finally, had I used Delaunay in the first leg of my final Pick Three (which concluded with the Derby) instead of my "off" track preferences, I'd have cashed that Pick Three ticket (along with Wise Dan and Orb) which paid $74.  Betting Delaunay to Win/Place would have, eventually - along with my successive winnings - gotten me back to even on the day, the Race 9 Exacta would have put me into the black and the Derby-wrapping Pick Three would have put me well ahead on the day.

Of course, it didn't work out that way.

Just betting - or not betting - one horse can make or break your whole day.  Newsflash; Dog bites man. 

Still, when I consider how my day began; Making a mistake in creating the Pick Six, being angry with myself, suffering bad beats early on, being down big, but ultimately cashing big winning tickets in the Turf Classic and in the Kentucky Derby (the most difficult race to handicap), and concluding with a respectable (but worthless) 3 of 6 Pick Six ticket..... I feel very good about how things went.  And, in the final analysis, I had a good day and had fun with The B Team.  That's what it's all about.

I drop more than $32 every time I go to a Reds game on tickets, parking, food and that's just a 3 hour event.  Thanks to The Old Master of the Turf, Derby Day is a 10-hour marathon.  Dinner out on a Friday night can run more than $32.  This isn't justification, this is realization.

The B Team had a great day.  My -$32 made me the lone B in the red.  The Old Master cashed several tickets on the day, including having Orb to Win, and exited Turfway with about $400 more than he walked in with.  Lou decided to parlay his Race 9 and Race 10 winnings into a Kentucky Derby straight Win bet on Orb that paid over $500.  The B Team's combined winnings, approaching $1,000 on the day, paled in comparison to The Old Master's cosa nostra buddy who joined us at our Homestretch Room table.  In addition to hitting handfuls of Trifectas at Churchill Downs and, via simulcast, Hollywood Park and Belmont Park, he also hit the Kentucky Derby Superfecta which paid over $6,900.  He had "a piece," having bet just .50-cents instead of $2 and so cashed-in on the Derby alone at nearly two Grand.  And thus had IRS paperwork to fill out before being paid.

We will sing one song for the old Kentucky home, for the old Kentucky home far away.

Additional photos:

Tools of the Trade; Daily Racing Form, program, pen.

Impressionistic [read; Blurry] photo of The Old Master of the Turf checking the odds board just minutes before hitting the Kentucky Derby.

Fantastically illustrative photo of the 2013 Kentucky Derby courtesy of your good friends at Fox News.  Capacity crowd, sloppy track, dense spray of mud, rain-obscured Twin Spires.

If you're scoring at home or if you're by yourself [credit; Keith Olbermann], I've had the Kentucky Derby winner in:

2013 - Orb

2007 - Street Sense

2006 - Barbaro

2001 - Monarchos

1991 - Strike The Gold

1989 - Sunday Silence

1984 - Swale

..... and cashed Place money on second-place finishers in:

2011 - Nehro

2003 - Empire Maker

2000 - Aptitude

1997 - Captain Bodgit

1996 - Cavonnier

..... and cashed a handful of Exactas/Trifectas.

In the days following a big race day, such as the Breeders' Cup or the Kentucky Derby, I like to review my notes and my handicapping and watch video replays of the races in order to sharpen my skills.  Typically my last action before closing the Daily Racing Form and moving on to other pursuits is to measure my own picks against the experts.  Let me say that as a lifelong reader of the DRF I have respect for all their analysts.  In no way am I casting aspersions upon their experience, knowledge or credibility.  Rather, along with few others, I consider the staff at the DRF to be the gold standard for the venerable art of turf writing.  For the Kentucky Derby alone, the DRF assembled 25 of their best and brightest and asked them to give their top four preferences for the Derby.  Applying good old fashioned logic, we understand that their picks are listed in order of preference - that is to say, the horse listed first was their pick to Win, the horse listed second was their pick to Place (and also the back half of an Exacta), etc.  As I like to highlight for my loyal subscribers each year, my ability to select winners is just as good as the best that the experts are able to manage and that my rate of success routinely exceeds most of the experts. 

Here's the breakdown for the 2013 Kentucky Derby:

11 of the 25 picked Orb to Win, just as I did.  My Reily math informs me that 44% of DRF writers made the correct pick.  That's impressive!  Yet 56% of DRF writers did not correctly pick the Derby winner.  Therefore, in the narrow spectrum of selecting the Derby winner, I beat 56% of the experts.

Three of my top four preferences hit the board for a money finish in any order.  None of the DRF writers correctly identified all four in any order.  Ergo, not a single DRF writer surpassed me in this category.  7 of the 25 DRF analysts correctly identified three of the first four finishers in this year's Derby, or 28%.  Thus, my having selected three of the first four finishers (in any order) outperformed 72% of the experts!

Credit where credit is due, only one of the 25 DRF staffers identified three of the top four finishers as well as picking the longshot runner-up, Golden Soul.  That was DRF analyst David Grening.  This I did not do.  Therefore, David Grening is the only DRF writer among their 25 who surpassed my Kentucky Derby picks.

How ya like me now?