As you might imagine, there has been this week some excellent turf writing regarding this subject. I highly recommend that you read "Memo to Victor: Don't Let Belmont Park Beat You" and "Pharoah Fits Profile of Triple Crown Winner" and "To Move or Not to Move," all by Steve Haskin, all illuminative and all published at The Blood-Horse. Bill Finley at ESPN gives readers a look back at the "unlucky 13" who tried and failed to win the Triple Crown since Affirmed last did so in 1978 (useful data to impress the guests at your Triple Crown party. You are hosting a Triple crown party, aren't you?).
The Morning Line on American Pharoah is 3-5. Just as with the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago, those odds do not provide an appeal from a singular wagering perspective unless you plan to wager John Pierpont Morgan sums of Treasury-inflated bank notes. The way to bet on American Pharoah this Saturday is to include him on the back end of a multi-race exotic wager, such as a Pick 3 or Pick 4. This I will do, and I will be rooting for him to win.
I am of the school of thought that the modern Thoroughbred racehorse is neither bred nor trained for the grueling three-races-in-five-weeks regimen that is the Triple Crown. [Here is an interesting report about the science of equine recuperation between races. No, really, it is interesting.] As such, I will also play the Morning Line's second choice, Frosted (4th in the Derby), in a modest straight-WIN wager. For those of you who will ask, The Old Master of the Turf liked Materiality in the Derby and still likes him in the Belmont. American Pharoah has had just about as easy a time in the Derby and Preakness as one could imagine. He stalked the pace in a trouble-free trip in the Kentucky Derby and wired a smaller, lesser field in the sloppy monsoon that was the 2015 Preakness. The American Pharoah Triple Crown experience parallels, thus far, that of Smarty Jones. Smarty Jones stalked the pace in a sloppy 130th Kentucky Derby (2004) and won a hard-charging victory. Two weeks later Smarty Jones romped home to victory by a dozen lengths and went into the Belmont Stakes looking like the popular, lead pipe cinch for Triple Crown immortality that horse racing fandom and television broadcast networks have been craving for a generation. In the '04 Belmont, Smarty Jones raced hard and fought to as honest a defeat as there is in The Sport of Kings. His trainer and jockey, too, were magnanimous in their defeat which only added to the popularity and sympathy that enveloped Smarty Jones. Last year's crybaby sore-loser connections of California Chrome should have taken a page from the experience of 2004. This 13-minute video of the 2004 Belmont Stakes is perhaps longer than most of you are interested in watching but it takes you back to a time when wild popularity was the sentiment for Smarty Jones and, simultaneously, it serves as a model for nobility in defeat.
On Saturday, I'll reach deep into my t-shirt drawer and wear proudly Smarty's colors. Well, wear them proudly under a collared shirt:
For the record, I only wear this t-shirt on Belmont Day when there is a Triple Crown at stake and, of course, we haven't had a Triple Crown winner since. I'm actually not certain what that says about the motives in wearing my Smarty Jones t-shirt. Perhaps it's akin to betting the "Don't Pass" line at the casino craps table?
For the horseplayers among you, the Belmont undercard has some great races. The (Race 9) Metropolitan Handicap may be the best race of the day. It pits Bayern, Honor Code, Pants on Fire, Private Zone, Tonalist, and Wicked Strong among others in a ferocious 10-horse field. My plan for the day is to send my bankroll with The Old Master to bet for me a few Pick 3's, and maybe one or two WIN bets.
I've long thought that a Triple Crown winner, as triumphant a moment as that would certainly be, will not generate the long-term effects - namely in terms of increasing interest among the general public - as so many seem to think. Come January, there won't be any more people interested in horse racing as there was this past January. Five years from now we'll hear the same lamentations about going so long without having another Triple Crown winner. In this, I hope I am wrong.
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June 6th is also Epsom Derby Day in England. The Epsom Derby is the race upon which our own Kentucky Derby is modeled (and named for). It, too, is the premiere race for three-year olds in England. Last year I gave you the winner in a horse named Australia. I haven't had an opportunity to do anything more than give a cursory look into this year's Epsom Derby except to say that I note the world's greatest jockey - Lanfranco "Frankie" Dettori - has the mount on the Morning Line favorite, a horse named Golden Horn. Ergo, Golden Horn will have my rooting interest if not my financial backing.
Roll the credits!
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