April 26, 2016

Nearly Blind Selections

Last week I received urgent voicemail recordings and text messages from The Incomparable Joe Wilhelm that went a little something like this:



Luckily for Joe-Joe, I was home that afternoon fighting off pneumonia/bronchitis and so had the free time to peruse the next day's entries at Keeneland.  Of course, Joey knows how to butter my bread and generously volunteered my usual finders fee for services rendered which, as may be inscrutable in the text exchange above, could permit me to acquire more autographs of Reds outfielder Adam Duvall (I've been wearing Joe out with my nearly continual references this season to the Adam Duvall autographed baseball I obtained at RedsFest last December).

I explained to The Incomparable, as I do to all horse racing neophytes seeking my learned assistance, the ultimate goal for padawan Jedi is to enjoy the afternoon at the track.  The principal pathway to achieve this satisfaction is by cashing winning tickets.  Yet one should not be aggressive with their wagering as more focused wagers (for example; WIN only) or big ticket wager amounts is the shortcut to tearing up losing tickets and burning deep holes into short pockets.  That kind of reckless wagering should be left to the veterans.  My solution for Joe, particularly in light of my not having access to past performances, was for him to utilize my recommendations and make a single $2 SHOW wager on each race.  That would permit Joe with optimum ticket-cashing opportunities with no risk of bankruptcy.  Remember, Mr Incomparable has 8 jobs and lives in a palatial estate so he could afford to lose the $18 in wagers I suggested for him.

I asked Joe to send me some selfies from Keeneland so that I could feel as if I was there with him and in this he did not disappoint!



Here Joe poses near one of Keeneland's iconic Rolex clocks, this one adjacent to the paddock.  Good choice in subject matter, Joey!

As for me, I was home at The Ranch on my couch watching all the action live via the Keeneland website:



Without delay, I was flooded with questions, the funniest of which was "WTF is a furlong?"

In Race 1 that afternoon, my SHOW selection for Joe ran third and paid $2.40 for his $2 wager.  From there, things briefly went off the rails; a 6th place finish, a 5th place finish and 2 scratches immediately followed.  Things like late scratches (or jockey changes or equipment changes or a developing track bias) are what makes picking horses more than a few hours in advance of post time so problematic.  Remember this next time you ask you friendly neighborhood horse player for his Derby picks three days before the race.  Despite these wagering struggles, Joe kept up a brave face:



Joe, his baseball sense attuned, observed "That's some good infield dirt!  Could get some nice hops if it was compacted."



The Incomparable staked out a nice spot along the rail.  This was our "winner" from the first race (photographed here during the post parade).

Joe went silent on me after the third race. I later found out he was having lunch (a hot dog and a beer, he also was brave enough to try the track specialty burgoo).  When Joe next textified me, it was to inform me that he and his group of co-workers and associates were leaving, heading back home!  Even The Old Master of the Turf waits until the feature race before "trying to beat the crowd."

It's a shame the Joe didn't have more time that afternoon to explore the scenic grounds at Keeneland but also that his wagering day ended so soon.  Over that day's final four races, my SHOW picks finished with a flourish - a first, a third, and two seconds!  All "winners."  Over the last four races, Joe's prospective $8 in SHOW wagers would have earned him $13.40 in payouts!

But of course, these are the digital pages of Heavy Artillery and as such this post is really all about me and my astounding, perceptive race card selections which were made without access to past performances - nearly blind, as it were!

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We're now less than two weeks away from The First Saturday in May.  Here are some quick links to whet your appetite:

The Florida Derby.  Remember the words of The Old Master of the Turf, "Never bet against a horse that's never been beaten."

The Arkansas Derby.  The most unfortunate race call of the year, "Creator will not get the job done!  On the outside here's Whitmore coming on.... and Creator is flying!  Creator now strikes to the lead!..... It's Creator to win the Arkansas Derby!"  Oops.

The Santa Anita Derby.  Love the track announcer's start; "Racing!"  If you like deep closers, this year's Kentucky Derby field is jam-packed with 'em!

The Wood Memorial.  Worst stretch call of the year.  Hint; Adventist was not the horse on the rail.  Oops.

The Blue Grass Stakes.

The Daily Racing Form's Mike Watchmaker columns Saturday Does Nothing To Raise Quality of Kentucky Derby Preps and Kentucky Derby May Not Set Up for Closers.

Steve Haskin's weekly column in The Blood-horse The Derby Dozen.  If you only read one thing about the Derby, read his column.

Some of you are only reading this far in the hope of seeing pictures of horses (you know who you are).  Spring time in horse country means foals.  Lots and lots of cute, prancing, adorable foals (did I just morph into a 14-year old girl?).  If this is your thing, follow DRF Barbara Livingston.

For all things Kentucky Derby, check out the official Derby website.  For many things Derby (but all things horse racing), check out The Jockey Club's website America's Best Racing.

Roll the credits!

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