On March 30, 2018 - Opening Day that season for the Cincinnati Reds - I published on these digital pages a posting titled "Comparative Analysis; Robinson & Votto." That analysis of Frank Robinson and Joey Votto eventually widened to encompass a handful of other all-time great Redlegs. Immediately before drawing my considered conclusion in that posting, acknowledging that in the midst of his career Joey Votto's future achievements could alter any fair evaluation of him, I included the rhetorical directive Ask me again 2020.
2020. Wow. Nobody saw that coming.
Something very few could have foreseen following Joey Votto's near-MVP season in 2017 was the rapid, precipitous decline in his performance. Turning his back on hitting for power and run production, Votto dived headlong down the SABRmetric rabbit hole of On-Base Percentage maximization. He choked up on the bat handle ever higher, shortened his swing to alligator-armed length, squatted in his batting stance deeper and deeper, and in the bargain surrendered his home run power and 100-RBI production and drove one Reily Township fan into furious apoplectic eruptions of volcanic rage.
Somebody should tell that guy to chill, that it's just a ball game.
In 2017 Joey Votto's slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) was .320/.454/.578 with 36 home runs and 100 runs batted in. '17 marked the second season Votto blasted more than 35 home runs and the third season he drove in 100 or more RBI, the third season he led all of Major League Baseball in on-base percentage (sixth time leading the National League) and the ninth time Votto finished a season with a batting average over .300 and also a slugging percentage over .500. Then the SS Votto inexorably ran aground:
2018: .284/.417/.419 with 12 HR and 67 RBI
2019: .261/.357/.411 with 15 HR and 47 RBI
Somehow - during a challenging, frustrating, discombobulating existence wherein the course of human events in general and the 2020 baseball season in particular teetered on the event horizon of oblivion - the Cincinnati Reds sneaked into an expanded postseason derived from the global pandemic with the worst team batting average in franchise history. Yes! Worse even than what Reds teams batted during the Dead Ball Era. In a word, the Reds' team batting in 2020 was abysmal. Ultimately, the Porkopolis Rhinelanders made the playoffs on the strength of their having the best starting pitching in baseball.
When in March of 2020 the Commissioner of Major League Baseball announced the postponement of the baseball season, television networks with MLB broadcast rights scrambled to fill the programming void. Fox Sports Ohio used the opportunity to televise classic Cincinnati Reds games from bygone years. For me, the highlight of this alternate programming was a rebroadcast of the 1976 World Series between the Reds and New York Yankees. During Game 1 or Game 2 of the '76 Series, both games played at Riverfront Stadium, the old broadcast displayed a graphic highlighting the anemic regular season statistics for Yankee shortstop Fred Stanley. Remember, this was an era before the emergence of great-hitting shortstops such as Cal Ripken Jr, Barry Larkin, Nomar Garciaparra, and Alex Rodriguez. In days now long past, middle infielders were "all-glove, no-stick." Great defensive players in the field and near-automatic outs at bat. When I reflected upon Fred Stanley's '76 batting statistics, a wicked vision darkened my thoughts; the Votto Production Theorem. In light of Joey Votto's downward spiral since 2017 could he, as seemed imminently likely, over the course of a pandemic-shortened 2020 MLB season produce statistics as pathetic as a 1970's shortstop?
There was one person to ask. A long-time subscriber to Heavy Artillery who played college baseball, who coached high school baseball, a master artisan of pottery and crime-fighting superhero and who also has requested to never again be identified by name on these digital pages lest one of the nine people who bother to read these posts torpedo his flourishing real estate empire.
In the event you are unable to scrutinize the relevant details in the image, above, in 1976 Fred Stanley batted .238 with 1 home run and 20 RBI. You will note that my stated proposition was not suggestive that Votto would necessarily underperform Fred Stanley but rather that in 2020 Votto could closely replicate - plus or minus - Stanley's Bicentennial year performance. Yet when my text message pen pal proposed a hot fudge sundae wager, how could I resist? Baseball insiders will be quick to tell you that Mr Heavy Artillery didn't play the game, meaning Major League Baseball. But those insiders don't know that I was the feared 10th batter for the Cherokee Motors T-Ball team in the late 1970s. In 2020 the Votto decline reached Marianas Trench depths.
As you may plainly see, Votto's 2020 stats could very easily be interchanged with Fred Stanley's '76 stats. Joey batted 10 points lower than an "all glove, no stick" 1970s shortstop and drove in just a single run more. If we return to the original Votto Production Theorem as posed to the Incomparable Unnamed Subscriber, well.... I hate to say I told you so I nailed it!
Post-pandemic hot fudge sundae, here I come!
Returning now to the subject first raised in 2018 regarding whether Joey Votto could be considered the greatest-ever Cincinnati Red.
Excluding pitchers and also position players who played prior to the so-called "Modern Era" (or before 1901), the list of greatest all-time Reds players looks something like this:
Edd Roush
Ernie Lombardi
Ted Kluszewski
Frank Robinson
Pete Rose
Tony Perez
Johnny Bench
Joe Morgan
Barry Larkin
Joey Votto
This list doesn't include two Cincinnati Red MVPs (Frank McCormick and George Foster) or great players (Heinie Groh, Vada Pinson, Eric Davis, Ken Griffey Jr) or players who made brief but significant contributions to the club (Wahoo Sam Crawford, Cy Seymour, Dave Parker, Kevin Mitchell, Greg Vaughn).
Over the past 3 seasons, 2018-2020, Joey Votto averaged 13 home runs and 45 runs batted in. That is awful production, over an extended period, for a player who in 2017 purported to be the greatest-ever. It cannot be overlooked that 2020 wasn't a full 162-game season and while it may seem somewhat unfair to evaluate evenly Votto's 2020 stats with those from 2018 and 2019, if you look again at Votto's numbers over those three seasons the 2020 performance logically follows the slide that began in 2018. 12 to 15 to 11 home runs. 67 to 47 to 21 runs batted in. Would Votto have hit a few more home runs in 2020 had the regular season been longer, or a full season? Perhaps. Would Votto have driven in another dozen or two dozen runs? Perhaps. But had these numbers materialized they ultimately would result in marginal increases for that three-year period. That awful three-year period.
For the stipulated list of all-time greatest Reds presented in this post, what immediately follows were their slash lines, plus home run and RBI averages from their least productive three-year span while wearing a Cincinnati uniform:
Roush 1918-20: .331/.379/.446 with 4 HR & 74 RBI
Lombardi 1932-34: .297/.344/.435 with 8 HR & 59 RBI
Kluszewski 1948-50: .299/.332/.460 with 15 HR & 79 RBI
Robinson 1956-58: .295/.369/.530 with 33 HR & 80 RBI
Rose 1984-86: .262/.364/.314 with 1 HR & 35 RBI
Perez 1984-86: .277/.346/.392 with 3 HR & 26 RBI
Bench 1981-83: .267/.326/.427 with 11 HR & 39 RBI
Morgan 1977-79: .260/.384/.417 with 15 HR & 62 RBI
Larkin 2001-03: .257/.328/.372 with 4 HR & 27 RBI
Votto 2018-20: .265/.382/.420 with 13 HR & 45 RBI
On the above list of least productive three-year spans, the only two players that Votto outperformed in each statistical category are Pete Rose and Barry Larkin.
From 2001-2003 Barry Larkin, nearing the end of his Hall of Fame career, averaged just 87 games played per season during seasons in which he was 37, 38 and 39 years of age compared with 114 games played per season for Votto at the ages of 34, 35 & 36. Sure, Votto outperformed Larkin during those selected three-year spans; he played in more games and was 4 years younger.
From 1984-1986 Pete Rose, playing out the final 3 years in a 24-year career, was 43, 44 and 45 years old and he averaged 10 fewer games played per season than Votto during those years. Votto was 10 years younger than Rose, and the Hit King was never known to be and was never recognized as a home run hitter or RBI guy. Sure, Votto outperformed Rose. Joey was a decade younger. At age 44, the Hit King was an All-Star. Uniquely among this grouping of greatest Redlegs, from 1984-86 Rose was the player-manager for Cincinnati, developing a young team (Barry Larkin, Eric Davis, Paul O'Neill and Tom Browning) that would soon win the World Series . Peter Edward's contributions from '84-'86 expanded well beyond his achievements as a player and far outpace the nature of production that Joey Votto contributed.
The player whose least productive three-year span that most closely parallels Votto's least productive three-year span is Hall of Famer Joe Morgan. Morgan averaged 23 more games played per season than Votto. During the course of that span Little Joe was 33, 34 & 35 years old, virtually the same ages as Joey Votto. Over that period, Morgan was a 3-time All-Star and was awarded a Gold Glove. Votto was an All-Star just one of those seasons and won no League-wide awards.
Strikingly similar, also, was the least productive three-year span of Johnny Bench. JB averaged 94 games played per season over that span compared with the 114 games Votto averaged and like Joe Morgan was also 33-35 years old. Those 3 years coincided with the final 3 years of JB's career, his 15th, 16th and 17th. The wear and tear on a catcher is far beyond that of any other position player. Bench at age 33 or 34 or 35 had a body that was more like that of a 37 or 40 or 44-year old. Yet Bench out-hit for average and out-slugged Votto and despite playing in, on average, 20 fewer games per season averaged just 2 fewer home runs per season and 6 fewer RBI per season. Bench was rewarded with one All-Star selection during those final 3 seasons of his career.
Votto exceeded the production of Hall of Famer Tony Perez in each category except batting average. Doggie averaged just 73 games played per season, over 40 fewer game per season than Votto and was 42-44 years of age. Perez was nearly a decade older than Votto. Those 3 seasons were the last of Tony's 23 years in the Big League.
Reflect upon Votto's least productive three-year span as it relates to those of Larkin, Rose, Morgan, Bench and Perez. Larkin and Rose and Bench and Perez were all older-to-much-older than Joey Votto, all played in fewer games than did Votto and all were at the end of their illustrious careers. If among this subset of all-time greatest Reds Votto could be considered to have had the least worst three-year span, then it rings as a hollow victory. Whereas Morgan was of similar age to Votto and presents a similar basis of comparison, Morgan must receive the nod over Joey Votto due to his 3 All-Star selections and his Gold Glove Award.
In a bold contrast to the ancient veterans Larkin, Rose, Bench and Perez who all were then at the ends of their lengthy playing careers, the grouping of Lombardi, Kluszewski and Robinson experienced their least productive three-year span as youngsters at the very beginning of their respective Big League careers. For both Frank Robinson and Ted Kluszewski, it was their first three seasons. Robie was 20, 21 and 22 years old, the Big Klu 23, 24 and 25 years old. Frank Robinson was twice selected to an All-Star game, was awarded a Gold Glove and was the Rookie of the Year in 1956 during his least productive three-year span. Lombardi was playing in his 2nd, 3rd and 4th Major League seasons at the ages of 24, 25 and 26. The Schnozz averaged just 5 more games per season than did Votto and - like Kluszewski - played his home games and quite a few road games in ballparks with massive home run-robbing outfield dimensions yet Lombardi averaged 15 more RBI per season than Votto. Despite being rookies+ these three all-time great Cincinnati Reds never had a three-year span that was as little productive let alone less productive, in total, than Joey Votto. Each of the three - Lombardi, Kluszewski & Robinson - had far better batting averages (thirty points higher than Joey Votto) and drove in more runs during their respective least productive three-year spans than did Votto at his own River City nadir.
From 1918-1920 Edd Roush was playing in what should have been the prime of his career. Those three seasons were his 5th, 6th and 7th Major League seasons. He was 25, 26 and 27 years of age. During that span he averaged almost 20 more games played per season than did Votto. But this was also the very end of the Dead Ball Era, an era in which there were scant few home runs being hit (big ballparks, dead baseballs) and those home runs being recorded were of the inside-the-park variety. Despite this, Edd Roush achieved a higher slugging percentage on the strength of so many doubles and triples and drove in more runs than did Joey Votto.
Taking as a whole the grouping of all-time greatest Reds, Votto's least productive three-year span was worse still than the kids who were rookies, who were younger and with far less Big League experience and those all-time greats for whom Votto's least productive three-year span exceeded, they were older and much older and at the ends of long careers and playing in fewer games than Votto. None of this reflects particularly positively upon Joey Votto.
If you are curious as to how Rose, Perez and Larkin performed at the ages of 34, 35 & 36 and how it compared to the Votto 2018-2020 abyss;
Rose 1975-77: .317/.396/.438 with 9 HR & 67 RBI
Perez 1976-78: .278/.339/.455 with 17 HR & 87 RBI
Larkin 1998-00: .304/.392/.467 with 13 HR & 63 RBI
Votto 2018-20: .265/.382/.420 with 13 HR & 45 RBI
When Larkin, Perez and Rose each were 34 to 36 years of age, they were playing in more games per season than did Votto at those same ages. Primarily this is a function of the severely abbreviated pandemic season of 2020 and partly because - it deserves to be noted - that in the case of Peter Edward particularly the Hit King was averaging 162 games per season (for the uninitiated, Rose played every game in each of the 3 seasons when he was 34, 35 & 36 years old). In this respect, it is not fair to compare RBI and home run averages across these selected seasons for Pete, Tony and Barry with Joey.
And yet.....
When Peter Edward Rose was 34 to 36 years old and was averaging 162 games played per season, during that period he also was 3-time All-Star, 2-time World Champion, and twice finished in the top 5 in MVP voting. Tony Perez averaged 147 games played per season and was an All-Star and World Champion in 1976 (in 1977 & 1978 Doggie played for Montreal). Cincinnati's own Barry Larkin averaged 136 games played per season, twice was an All-Star, and twice was awarded the Silver Slugger as the best hitter at his position.
Meanwhile, Joey Votto was just once an All-Star. Full disclosure, that was one more All-Star Game selection than Mr Heavy Artillery earned when he was 34, 35 and 36. But Votto's own awards and achievements pale in comparison to those of Perez, Larkin and Rose at the same respective ages. All three out-slugged Votto, Rose and Larkin had better slash lines. Consider this; Rose out-slugged Votto and the Hit King drove in more runs. That's a seriously negative differentiation for Joey Votto.
If you are further curious as to how Roush, Lombardi, Kluszewski and Robinson performed at the ages of 34, 35 & 36 and how it compared to the Votto 2018-2020 abyss;
Roush 1927-29: .304/.353/.414 with 6 HR & 41 RBI
Lombardi 1942-44: .294/.354/.424 with 10 HR & 52 RBI
Kluszewski 1959-61: .268/.326/.432 with 8 HR & 35 RBI
Robinson 1970-72: .282/.381/.495 with 24 HR & 79 RBI
Votto 2018-20: .265/.382/.420 with 13 HR & 45 RBI
Roush was playing in an era that predated All-Star Games and Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Awards. From 1927-29 he was playing for the New York Giants. He averaged 100 games played per season, 14 fewer than Votto's 114 games played per season, and drove in just 4 fewer runs. Lombardi played for the Boston Braves in '42, the New York Giants in '43 & '44. Lombardi averaged 5 fewer games played than Votto but drove in, on average, 7 more runs. The Schnozz was a 2-time All-Star during the selected period. Kluszewski averaged 93 games played per season with the Pirates, White Sox and Angels, the final three seasons in Klu's 15-year playing career. During this span, Kluszewski twice batted over .290 (.297 & .293) surpassing Votto's highest same-age batting average (.284). Robinson played for the Baltimore Orioles in 1970-71, the Los Angeles Dodgers in '72. Robie averaged 123 games played per season. Frank was a 2-time All-Star, and once between the ages of 34-36 finished in the top 5 of MVP voting.
Roush, Lombardi, Kluszewski and Robinson - each respectively the same ages as was Votto from 2018 to2020 - all hit for higher averages than did Votto. Lombardi, Kluszewski and Robinson all had higher slugging percentages than Votto, Roush just .006 points lower. Credit where credit is rarely due in this analysis, Votto achieved higher on-base percentages than Robinson, Kluszewski, Lombardi and Roush.... but was just .001 higher than Robinson. Frank Robinson achieved his similar OBP not by taking bases on balls as frequently as did Joey Votto but rather by putting the bat on the ball and hittin' 'em where they ain't with greater frequency than Votto.
Votto's steep decline in production from 2018 to 2020 is evident and caused me to look back upon that 2018 Heavy Artillery analysis of Frank Robinson and Joey Votto, yet what initiated this project was a review of Joey Votto's postseason statistical record upon the conclusion of the 2020 playoffs. Granted, there could be a multitude of factors one may contemplate when considering who is the greatest player or, as it applies to the subject of this post, the worst greatest; batting averages, slugging percentages, MVP awards, Gold Glove awards, Silver Slugger awards, home runs, runs batted in, championships won, fielding percentage, stolen bases, runs scored, hits. Thanks to the mad scientists at SABR and their unending statistical categories like WAR, OPS or VORP, the list is nearly limitless.
While Joey Votto has yet to appear in a World Series, he has appeared in 4 playoff series (11 games played). Cumulatively his postseason slash line is .244/.319/.244 over 41 at-bats (47 plate appearances). Votto has zero doubles, zero triples, zero home runs (the eagle-eyed SLG experts among you already figured that out), zero stolen bases and has just 1 run batted in. One run batted in when the team most needs runs driven in, that being during the playoffs. This is a disastrous level of performance. As that relates to our selected grouping of the greatest-ever Cincinnati Reds:
Edd Roush played in just one postseason series, the 1919 World Series. In the 1919 World Series, Roush played in 8 games (don't ask, that's a subject for another day) with 28 at-bats and batted .214/.333/.357 with 2 doubles, a triple, 2 stolen bases, 7 RBI and won a World Championship.
Ernie Lombardi played in two postseason series', the 1939 and 1940 World Series. In six games and 17 at-bats he batted .235/.316/.294 with 1 double, 2 RBI and won a World Championship.
Ted Kluszewski, like Roush and Lombardi, played in an era when there were no postseason series' other than the World Series. No Cincinnati Reds team that the Big Klu ever played on made it to the World Series. While it is outside of our criteria for being a Reds great, you should know that in the 1959 World Series Ted Kluszewski batted .391/.440/.826 with 1 double, 3 home runs, 10 RBI in 6 games and 23 at-bats for the Chicago White Sox. In that '59 Series the Big Klu demonstrated a degree of clutch performance that Joey Votto has only dreamed of.
Over the course of his full playing career, Frank Robinson played in 8 postseason series', but only once with the Reds. In the 1961 World Series, Cincinnati's Robie played in 5 games and totaled 15 at-bats. He batted .200/.400/.533 with 2 doubles, 1 home run and 4 RBI in surpassing the postseason performance of Joey Votto. In the 1970 World Series, playing against Cincinnati, Robinson batted .273/.273/.545 with 2 home runs and 4 RBI.
Peter Edward Rose played in a total of 14 (there's that number again) postseason series', nine with the Cincinnati Reds. In those nine Cincinnati series' Rose played in 42 games and had 173 at-bats with 55 hits, 10 doubles, 2 triples, 5 home runs, 16 RBI, 1 stolen base. Rose won two World Championships with the Reds and was the 1975 World Series MVP. Expanding beyond our scope, in all 14 postseason series' Rose batted .321/.388/.440. That includes appearing in 7 different League Championship series' and 6 World Series'. The Hit King produced for his teams when it mattered the most. Joey Votto has not. Ever.
Tony Perez played in the same nine Cincinnati postseason series with the Reds as did Pete Rose, playing in the same 42 games but had 161 at-bats. Doggie had 38 hits, 6 doubles, 6 home runs (including one memorably monstrous home run "over everything" at Fenway Park off of Bill "Spaceman" Lee), 25 RBI and 1 stolen base plus 2 World Championships. Joey Votto has 1 RBI in 11 postseason games played. To equal Doggie's postseason RBI mark in a Reds uniform, Joey Votto at his current pace would have to play in 275 postseason games. Impossible.
The greatest catcher who ever lived, Johnny Lee Bench, played in a total of 45 postseason games over the course of 10 postseason series' with the Reds. JB had 45 hits, 8 doubles, 3 triples, 10 home runs and 20 RBI with 6 - count 'em, SIX - stolen bases while batting .266/.335/.527 plus 2 World Championships. Johnathan, as Sparky Anderson called him, was the World Series MVP in 1976 when he batted .533/.533/1.133 with 2 bombs and 6 RBI in the 4-game sweep of the Yankees. I got news for you, Sugar Bear, JB was a clutch performer when it most mattered.
Joe Morgan played in 8 postseason series' with Cincinnati. In the 1975 NLCS Little Joe batted .273/.429/.545 with 3 doubles and 4 stolen bases. In the 1976 World Series Morgan batted .333/.412/.733 with a double, a triple, a home run and 2 stolen bases and clinched his 2nd World Championship with the Reds. Joe had an uneven playoff record while a Cincinnati Red. Over the course of 18 combined at bats in the 1976 and 1979 NLCS' he batted .000. Even so, Joe Morgan contributed significantly to the success of Cincinnati in multiple playoff series in ways that Joey Votto has yet to match.
In 4 postseason series', all with Cincinnati, Barry Larkin played in 17 playoff games. In those 17 games he batted .338/.397/.465 with 24 hits, 5 doubles, 2 triples, 3 RBI, and 8 stolen bases. Larkin played in just one World Series, which the Reds won in 1990. When his production mattered most of all to the Cincinnati Reds, Barry batted .353/.421/.529. In the 1995 NLDS and NLCS Larkin's batting averages were .385 and .389. Potent consistency. In those same two '95 postseason series' Larkin's on-base percentages were .429 and .421. Potent consistency redux. In the 1995 NLCS Larkin posted a .611 slugging percentage. In the narrow frame of postseason batting performances over the course of multiple series' in a Cincinnati uniform, Barry Larkin could very well be the greatest ever [.....note to self; that sounds like a great idea for a future post].
None of the foregoing is meant to exclude Joey Votto from the discussion of greatest-ever Cincinnati Reds. By virtue of his eventual longevity in a Reds uniform Joey Votto will someday conclude his Cincinnati career at or very near the top in several significant statistical categories, both the traditional variety and new-age SABR junk science categories yet to be imagined. Joey Votto finished some seasons putting up numbers that rank among the greatest-ever in Cincinnati. You can't win an MVP award, and nearly a second, without having historic performance in a single season. Votto has one advantage over his fellow all-time greatest Reds, Joey still has more seasons to play in a Cincinnati uniform. He may yet have in his future a postseason in which he could bat with such vengeance that he knocks the cover off the ball and leads the Reds to a championship. Another MVP-calibre season or two, an historic postseason run and Joey Votto could vault to the top or near the top of any listing of the all-time greatest Cincinnati Reds.
But Votto's three most recent seasons were a torpedo below the waterline that sunk him to the bottom of the list.
Ask me again in 2025. No, wait. Don't. We tried that before and it imploded 2020 off the calendar.
Remember when Reds greats burned with glowing intensity?
Remember when Reds greats were powerful and productive?
Remember when Reds greats excelled beyond expectations?
Remember when Reds greats were tough and resilient?
Remember when Reds greats were driven to be the best?
Remember when Reds greats made a career of being clutch hitters with runners on base?
Remember when Reds greats carried themselves with quiet confidence?
OK, OK. You didn't buy that quiet confidence stuff with Pete Rose. Remember when Reds greats were brash and cocksure, and would relentlessly pound the opposition into crippling submission?
Remember when Reds greats were at their best on the biggest stages?
Remember when Reds greats carried themselves with style and flair?
This is Joey Votto:
Joey Votto is the worst greatest Red of all-time.
