The First Saturday In May

For those, few, of you who haven't been following events along the Derby Trail this year, a significant - and long-overdue - change has been implemented in determining which thoroughbreds are qualified to be included in the Derby field.  Prior to 2013, entry was based primarily upon graded stakes earnings.  Simply put, the 20 three-year old thoroughbreds which had won the most purse money in Grade 1, Grade 2 and/or Grade 3 races was eligible for entry [provided they also met assorted secondary conditions which won't be addressed here].  

Allow me to now stipulate my yearly rant about 20 horses being too large a field, that they should not use the auxiliary starting gate and that they should limit the size of the field to 14.  

Let us now continue.

Among the shortcomings with the graded stakes earnings qualifier was that often horses would have earned a large sum of purse money by having won - for example - an important sprint race but that the same breeding which made them so adept at winning a sprint race simultaneously made them virtually incapable of winning at the Kentucky Derby's mile-and-one-quarter length.  Yet there they were, occupying a spot in the Derby starting gate which probably should have gone to a horse better able to compete at the Derby's so-called classic distance and also, attributable to their natural style of racing, there they were setting a too-fast - and many would argue "false" - pace in their early going, setting up a race scenario which isn't conducive to creating a satisfying conclusion.  Another shortcoming; Fillies are now effectively barred from the Kentucky Derby (unless they race against colts on the Derby Trail.  This measure is in part to ensure better fields for the Kentucky Oaks).

For 2013, the graded stakes earnings criteria has been abolished and in its place a points system has been devised by which a Win, Place and Show finish in predetermined prep races earns horses point totals which increase based upon, primarily, Grade level.  The highest point totals being awarded to those finishing 1st, 2nd or 3rd in Grade 1 races, a step lower for Grade 2, etc.  Those prep races which were selected for participation in this point system were those which would truly serve to prepare a given horse for the Kentucky Derby such as but not limited to; the Blue Grass Stakes, the Florida Derby, the Wood Memorial, the Arkansas Derby, the Santa Anita Derby, the Louisiana Derby, the Fountain of Youth Stakes, the San Raphael Stakes, the Gotham Stakes, etc.  There have been a few complaints with this new point system.  For example, the Illinois Derby was omitted from participation despite having produced the 2002 Kentucky Derby winner, War Emblem.

Whatever bugs yet need to be worked out of this new system, I think it provides a way to have a more capable field of Kentucky Derby participants than did the previous graded stakes earnings-based criteria.

What the forgoing suggests is that this year's Kentucky Derby field appears to be the best - or strongest - they've had, 1 through 20, in many decades.  Just one part of the lure of the Kentucky Derby for handicappers is the challenge; The Derby is the single most difficult race to handicap.  Bar none.  With a stronger field of 20, that challenge becomes incrementally more difficult.

For those of you interested in the wagering aspects of the Kentucky Derby, be sure to check out the links tab along the upper right side of Heavy Artillery (just below the red banner) for my list of recommended links.  Of particular relevance to this subject are links to The Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse.

For those of you who have an interest in the Kentucky Derby that skews more to the pageantry of the event, remember to watch the Kentucky Oaks - or "Ladies Day" - on the NBC Sports Network from 5pm to 6pm on Friday, May 3rd.  That one hour will be jam-packed with hats, dresses, roses, celebrities and... um... oh yeah, the Kentucky Oaks.

Then, clear your schedule for Saturday May 4th:

-- 11am to 4pm broadcast coverage will again be on NBCSN 
-- 4pm to 7pm the broadcast moves to the NBC mothership
-- 7pm to 730pm, post-race coverage reverts to NBCSN

If you simply have an interest for the spectacular thoroughbreds themselves, make a point to read Steve Haskin's "Derby Report: The Players Up Close" at:

steve-haskin/archive/2013/04/26/

And for those of you out there who prefer gray horses (you know who you are!), Santa Anita runner-up Flashback is off the Derby Trail, recovering from minor surgery.  Had Flashback not been injured, he'd easily have wrecked havoc with the Derby odds board as every bettor of the fairer sex would have put $2 on him based solely upon his striking coat (see image below):

Are those sparkles on the coat of Flashback?  What's next?  Glitter?  A pink horse?

Long-range Reconnaissance

The Kentucky Derby has seen some historically big longshot winners in recent years.  In 2005 Giacomo won at odds of 50-1 and in 2009 Mine That Bird won at odds of 51-1.  Those two represent, respectively, the third-longest and second-longest odds-on Kentucky Derby winners.  2013 marks the 100th anniversary of the biggest longshot to ever cross the wire first in "The Run for the Roses" when Donerail won at odds of 91-1.  Your $2-to-Win ticket that day paid $184.90.  Adjusted for inflation, that is approximately $4,417.98 in today's worthless greenbacks.  In 1913, thanks to streamlined production and cheap labor costs in the pre-UAW era, the cost of Henry Ford's Model T dropped to $550 (in 1909 a Model T, in black paint, ran about $850).  Your $4,400 winning ticket on Donerail meant you could have purchased a Model T for every day of the week, if that week included 8 days.  1913 was a long time ago, maybe they had 8-day weeks back then.

When one thinks of Churchill Downs today, often the first image that springs to mind is of the iconic twin spires that sit atop the grandstand.  In the photo below, from Derby Day 1901, there wasn't a whole lot else:

How about that massive awning hanging off the side of the grandstand?

The tradition of the Kentucky Derby being run on The First Saturday In May had not yet been established by 1901.  That year, the Derby was held on April 29th.  The winner of the 1901 Kentucky Derby was His Eminence.  His Eminence was a multiple-stakes winner and was sold at auction a handful of times following his Derby score.  In 1910 His Eminence met a tragic demise when his sixth owner was training the Derby champion to be a steeplechaser and His Eminence failed to successfully clear a hurdle.  In the days long before this modern era of spiraling stud fees, Derby winners often faced uncertain and odd futures.  Typhoon II won the Kentucky Derby in 1897.  By 1904, he was pulling a milk cart in Indianapolis, Indiana.

The photo above dates from 1907 but was not of the Kentucky Derby.  The 1907 Derby was run over a track mired in deep mud.  In the photo above of Churchill Downs you can see dust being kicked up at the start on a dry, "fast" track.  Pink Star, a horse of nasty temperament, wore the roses in 1907.  He was gelded the following year and lived out the rest of his life as a farm horse.  One might imagine Pink Star pulling a hay wagon.  And being of even worse temperament.

Notable by its absence in the photo above is the now-familiar starting gate.  The starting gate didn't become widely adopted until the 1940s.

Another strong-willed Kentucky Derby winner was War Admiral.  This son of Man o' War won the Derby in 1937, seen in the panoramic photo below:

The Lexington-born Man o' War did not win the 1920 Triple Crown only because he was not entered to run the Kentucky Derby that year.  His owner would only race his horses on tracks in the eastern United States, tracks such Saratoga, Belmont and Pimlico.  He refused to send his horse to race in Kentucky.  Just one year earlier, in 1919, Sir Barton won the first-ever Triple Crown and so the concept of competing for the Triple Crown wasn't yet firmly established in the minds of horsemen in 1920.  Man o' War was victorious in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes in '20.  Man o' War was the champion 2-year old in 1919 and was named Horse of the Year for 1920.  Widely regarded as the greatest racehorse of the 20th century, Man o' War retired with a record of 20 wins and 1 second in 21 lifetime starts (his one defeat coming in a half-length loss to a horse named Upset in a race which began - in that era before starting gates - with Man o' War facing the wrong direction, his jockey turning him around just as the starter gave his signal).  Nicknamed "Big Red" long before Secretariat was given the same nickname, Man o' War was a large horse and had a 28-foot stride.  His size and talent meant that he was assigned the high weight in handicap races, giving away as much as 35 pounds to his competitors.  And they still couldn't beat him.  Unlike some of his Derby-winning predecessors, Man o' War enjoyed a long and satisfying life at stud.  His bloodlines can still be found in the winners circle today, notably from horses sired by Tiznow and Honor And Glory.  Today you can visit the final resting place of Man o' War at the Kentucky Horse Park in Lexington and marvel at the life-size statue of him they have on display.

But that is Man o' War and the photo above is of his son War Admiral winning the 1937 Kentucky Derby.

War Admiral was also born in Lexington, Kentucky but did not possess his sire's size.  In 26 lifetime starts War Admiral compiled a record of 21-3-1, one of his five defeats famously coming at the hands (hooves?) of Seabiscuit - himself a grandson of Man o' War - in a match race held at Pimlico in 1938 and as portrayed in the film Seabiscuit.  In 1937 War Admiral became just the fourth horse to win the Triple Crown.

A mere four years later, in 1941, The Sport of Kings saw its fifth Triple Crown winner; Whirlaway, bred and owned by Calumet Farm.  The panoramic photo below captures the field for the 1941 Kentucky Derby participating in the post parade.  I am unable to discern which of the horses, below, is Whirlaway.

Calumet Farm neighbors Keeneland on Versailles Road in Lexington, Kentucky.  You might recall what Max Watman wrote about Calumet in his book Race Day:


William Wright founded the farm in 1924 after he made a lot of money hustling Calumet baking powder.  He sent salesmen into the field to conduct in-home demonstrations, all of them claiming the egg whites in the powder made the stuff more effective.  The sales tactic worked, and William Wright moved his farm from Illinois to Kentucky, just outside Lexington.
    When William’s son Warren Wright, Sr., took it over, he kicked things into gear.  He sold the baking powder company to General Foods for forty million dollars and got down to seriously breeding and racing thoroughbreds.
    Calumet Farm’s first big horse was Nellie Flag, in 1934, a granddaughter of Man o’ War and the best two-year-old running.  She was the favorite in the 1935 Kentucky Derby, where she was the first Derby mount for the young Eddie Arcaro.  (He would go onto win five Derbies, but not that one – that race belonged to Omaha.)
    In 1936, Wright joined A.B. Hancock, Sr., in a syndicate to import a stallion named Blenheim II, and bought a yearling named Bull Lea.  These two horses would establish a bloodline for Calumet that may very well be unmatched.  Each of the two foundation stallions gave Calumet a Triple Crown winner.  Whirlaway was a son of Blenheim II, and Citation was the son of Bull Lea.
    Winning 18 percent of all Triple Crowns ever won is pretty good shakes already, but Calumet’s accomplishments don’t stop there.  Twelve times Calumet has been the winningest owner when the yearly money count is figured.  Eleven years in a row they were the leading American breeder.  Nineteen horses owned by Calumet have won thirty-eight divisional or Horse of the Year championships.  Calumet-bred horses have won the Kentucky Derby nine times; eight of them were owned by the farm.  They have bred and owned seven winners of the Preakness Stakes.  The Calumet silks, Devil Red with blue hoops, have become famous. The farm itself, with its miles of white fences and all its barns painted red and white, has become the geographical manifestation of horse racing.
    The forties belonged to Calumet.  I can’t imagine anyone has seen anything like the concentrated, brilliant domination that began in 1940, when Whirlaway drifted out coming around his first stretch turn – a crazy habit that would be fixed with intensive training and a custom-made one-eyed blinker – and won his race anyway.  Calumet ran so many good horses these years that huge stakes winners would basically be the stablemate, second-stringers behind Calumet champions.
    Calumet closed out the forties with Citation.  It was the first horse to give Man o’ War’s reputation a run for its money, certainly one of the top three racehorses of all time, called by Eddie Arcaro “The runningest son of a bitch I ever been on.”
    When Warren Wright, Sr., died in 1950, he was survived by his wife Lucille.  His obituary in the Thoroughbred Record read:  “He played the game the way all games should be played, with fierce devotion to the main objective, content with nothing but paramount achievement… The devil red, not merely the symbol of the ultimate aristocracy of the Turf, became also the proud banner of the $2 bettor.  They believed in it, and they worshipped the horses that bore it.” 

Much like baseball players from earlier eras, the racing record of Whirlaway similarly suggests a level of durability that does not exist among the sport's modern participants; Whirlaway would race 60 times, winning 32 races and finishing in the money 56 times in total.  Calumet Farm's other Triple Crown winner, Citation, compiled a record of 32-10-2 in 45 lifetime starts.

Calumet Farm's list of Kentucky Derby winners is as follows:

Whirlaway (1941)
Pensive (1944)
Citation (1948)
Ponder (1949)
Hill Gail (1952)
Iron Liege (1957)
Tim Tam (1958)
Forward Pass (1968)

A ninth horse bred at Calumet (but sold by the farm) that won the Kentucky Derby was Strike The Gold in 1991.  

Max Watman makes reference to great stakes-winning horses being mere stablemates, "second-stringers," behind Calumet's champions.  One example of this was Coaltown.  In 1948 Coaltown won 8 of his 13 starts, including having won that year's Blue Grass Stakes in record time yet it was Calumet Farm stablemate Citation which won the Triple Crown - and most of the laurels - in 1948.

Unsurprisingly, Calumet has had more winners of the Blue Grass Stakes - run next door at Keeneland - than any other owner;  Bull Lea (1938), Ocean Wave (1943), Faultless (1947), Coaltown (1948), Forward Pass (1968), Alydar (1978).

In 2012, Calumet Farm was sold for a reported $40 million and is operated now by a native of Kentucky and former board member of Churchill Downs named Brad Kelley.  Mr Kelley owns two other Lexington-area farms.  He previously operated a racing stable called Bluegrass Hall and has continued using his own Bluegrass Hall colors (or "jockey's cap and silks"; black and gold) for racing under the Calumet banner.  As one condition of the sale, Calumet Farm retains the rights to its historic racing colors.  Here's to hoping that we once again, someday soon, see the old Calumet devil red and blue silks on Calumet thoroughbreds.

Calumet Farm will have one entrant in this year's Kentucky Derby, irrespective of colors, named Oxbow and conditioned by Hall of Famer trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

This Week In Baseball

Tuesday night The Incomparable Joe Wilhelm and I went to see the Reds host the Cubs at GABP.  We met at the statue of Johnny Bench around 6pm.  Joe said he wanted to grab a bite to eat but didn't want to pay ballpark prices for food.  Now that the Banks has been developed (what's that old saying?  Better 10 years late than never?), we kicked around the idea of hitting the Moerlein Lager House, but Joe said he'd been there just the night before.  My suggestion of chicken and waffles at Mahogany's didn't appeal to Jo-Jo's sensitive pallet.  Neither of us wanted to drop a C-note on steak at Ruth's Chris Steakhouse and I wouldn't be caught dead in Toby Keith's Dude, I Love This Bar or whatever it's called.  So we settled on Johnny Rocket's for a burger and fries.

My barbecue and bacon cheeseburger, fries and ice cold Coca-Cola ran to just north of $16.  I could get fifteen $1 hot dogs and one $1 Coke inside GABP for that price, Production Manager Wilhelm!  Then again, I would not have had the displeasure of watching ESPN on all twenty-five TV screens.  Couldn't they have put the MLB Network on just one?  How about Fox Sports Ohio for Reds pre-game coverage?  Evidently, the management at Johnny Rockets thinks that 100% of their customer base, just one hour prior to first pitch, wants to watch NBA playoff lowlights and a panel discussion on which SEC linebacker the Los Angeles Rams [sic] will draft with their 3rd pick in this year's PLARF draft.  Since there was nothing to watch, Joe gave me an analysis of daily life outside his office window in Over The Rhine.

One of my sources deep within the Reds organization, codenamed BOSS, stopped by my luxury box seats for a brief visit.  Evidently there was a sighting of another THS grad at the ballpark Tuesday night:

Joe embarked upon a great expedition throughout GABP to find the Patton Battalion but reported back they retreated during the 7th inning over the loud protestations of Generalissimo Bart Patton.  Dat Dude BP shoulda ditched the wife and kids and hung out with the boys!  Additionally, there were unconfirmed rumors that Jude was big-timing me and Joe in the Diamond Club seats, eating foie gras and drinking Chateau de Moises Alou '03.

The mighty Redlegs made a furious, two-run rally in the Bottom of the 9th to tie the ballgame.  At this point Joe had seen enough and went home, leaving me to watch the extra-innings in solitude. 

It wasn't too long before relief pitcher Manny Parra gave up a home run.  And then a base runner.  And another.  Soon the Cubs had a runner on third and were threatening to play add-on in the 10th inning.  The Reds infielders were drawn onto the infield grass in hopes of cutting down the baserunner attempting to score from third:

Manny Parra couldn't keep that runner on third from scoring.  The Reds trailed by 2 runs.  I took a photograph of my new Nike shoe, propped up upon a seatback in my then-desolate section of seats:

It was then that the skies opened up.  I sent a text message to The Incomparable Joe Wilhelm;  We're losing to the Cubs in extra innings and it's raining.  To which Jo-Jo replied;  Go home!

I did not!  I remained until the bitter, damp, dreary end able to console myself only in the knowledge that I correctly answered that night's Scoreboard Stumper.

Two nights later, the Reds found themselves playing the Nationals in  the District of Columbia before yet another proud alumnus of THS, Big Strick.

In the declassified spy photo above, G-Man Big Strick captured Reds hurler Bronson Arroyo in the act of committing Reds Country treachery, surrendering a half dozen runs to the enemy.  Covertly operating under the alias "Mark," Big Strick mingled about the crowd and dutifully reports the presence of many Reds jerseys - notably for Pete Rose, Barry Larkin and Sean Casey.  Faithfully adhering to Heavy Artillery principles, "Mark" also submitted the following panoramic photo of the crime scene:

Be sure to take photos of Reds action anytime they visit your neck of the woods and submit them for publication on Heavy Artillery.

TWIB Outro (extended version)

The Uselessness of OPS

Last week I dusted off my dusty old notes from 2011 which proved irrefutably that Peter Edward Rose's unassailable all-time hit record would withstand assailment from Derek Jeter and updated those notes with data from the 2012 season.

The notes I created for that 2011 analysis were jotted onto the back of a printout that previewed the 2011 Belmont Stakes.  In and of itself, that isn't significant.  What is of interest for us, this week, is that same 2011 Belmont Stakes printout also included notes I made which excoriated once and for all the utter uselessness of that darling new stat of SABRmatricians everywhere, OPS [or On-base Plus Slugging].

Ultimately, baseball statistics are important for two reasons; Primarily to contextualize what a player has achieved and secondarily to project what that same player is likely to do under given circumstances (such as for an upcoming at bat or perhaps extrapolated over the course of a season).

When, during the 1992 season, Reds manager Lou Piniella summoned Rob Dibble from the bullpen to close out the 9th inning, we fans understood that Dibs' 14.1 strikeouts per 9 innings suggested he was probably going to strike out at least one batter that inning, and perhaps more than one batter.  In 2007, Adam "Big Donkey" Dunn's statistical record suggested that during any given at bat he was 6.3% likely to blast a home run, had a 16% chance of being walked and a 26.1% chance of striking out.  These are outcomes that a manager might project, or that we fans may anticipate, during any given at bat due to the simplicity - the clarity - of undiluted statistics.  The moment one blends the results of differing measurable events in order to project a future outcome then any projection will necessarily be less accurate.  If the point of maintaining a statistical record is to understand as precisely as possible what has already occurred and to utilize that record in order to then make as precise a projection about a future outcome as may humanly be possible, the effort to combine past results of differing events adds disparate and incompatible data upon which those projections are based and renders such exercises fruitless.

Now, a situational example:

Bottom of the 9th inning, two outs, a runner on first base and the home team is down one run.  That run must score.  The manager of the team sends up to bat a batter with an OPS of .800.  As that .800 OPS batter digs into the batters' box, on deck is a Drew Stubbs-type batter who the manager and every fan watching knows will strike out on three pitches.  Ergo, the player now standing in the batters' box must drive in the baserunner (after all, OPS relies on Slugging Percentage which measures how many bases the batter advances per at bat).  If that .800 OPS batter is Ichiro Suzuki [career .798 OPS during the 2011 season when my notes were first generated, it's now .787 and I'm too lazy to look up a 2013-comparable .800 OPS replacement for Ichiro], his career 162-game average for doubles was 27 and home runs was 9, his OBP was .370.  But simply being issued a base on balls (a "walk"), or hitting a single (which Ichiro was doing, through 2011, approximately 180 times per season) - key elements determining OBP - would not have the desired result, that being the batter advancing multiple bases and therefore driving in the baserunner.  Is this the .800 OPS batter the manager would send up to bat in this situational example?  If that .800 OPS batter had been Carlton Fisk [career .797 OPS], a batter who average fewer than 100 singles per season yet averaged 27 doubles (identical to Ichiro through 2011) and 24 home runs, more than twice as many as Ichiro, and, therefore, was more than twice as likely to hit a home run than Ichiro.  In the situational example I provide here, Fisk is more likely to drive in that baserunner than Ichiro, and by a significant margin.

Two .800 OPS batters, two different likely outcomes.  

So, what is the point of OPS?  What does it suggest to you about what a batter has done or is likely to do?  Comparing a .300 hitter versus a .275 hitter gives you a clear delineation.   Comparing a .400 OBP versus a .350 OBP gives a clear difference.  Comparing an .800 OPS versus a .700 OPS is meaningless; How many walks and hits added to that OPS as opposed to how many doubles or home runs?  OPS itself does not answer that question.  Since it cannot answer that question then one cannot use it to project - or anticipate - a likely outcome.  There is no doubt that walks and singles do not produce the same results as doubles and home runs.  So why add them together?  Senseless.

Into his 2011 season, for his career Prince Fielder [.927 OPS] and Tris Speaker [.928] shared OPS.  Speaker's OBP was .428, Fielder's under .380.  Fielder's SLG was .540, Speaker's .500.  Speaker averaged 7 home runs per season, Fielder was averaging 38 per season for his career [as of 2011].  Do we project, do we anticipate, similar outcomes for their at bats?  Of course not.  Would you project, or anticipate, similar outcomes for two .300 hitters?  Two .400 OBP batters?  Two .500 sluggers?  Yes to all questions, and certainly with a much greater degree of accuracy than you would for batters with similar OPS.

Were Luke Appling and Vinny Castilla similar batters?  Both had an OPS of .797.  In a twenty year career Luke Appling never hit more than 8 home runs in a season but walked more than 100 times per season three different times.  Vinny Castilla had six seasons with 30+ home runs (three of which were 40+ seasons) but never took as many as 55 walks in a season.  Batting average is the largest portion of calculating OBP; Castilla batted .276 for his 16-year career, Appling .310.  Appling's lifetime OBP and SLG were practically identical; .399 OBP and .398 SLG.  Castilla's OBP was .321 and his lifetime SLG was .476.  Would anybody equate the performance, or project the likely outcome of an at bat, of Appling and Castilla?  No, yet that is precisely the purpose of OPS.

For their careers, Ted Kluszewski [.850] and Minnie Minoso [.848] were both .850 OPS batters.  Klu's lifetime OBP .353, SLG .497.  Minoso's lifetime OBP .389, SLG .459.  Empirically Big Klu and Minnie were different hitters, as were Luke Appling and Vinny Castilla.  Why invent a formula that creates an illusion of similarities which did not (or do not) exist?

OPS lacks clarity which is the essence of statistical record keeping.

Ave Atque Vale

Springfield, Ohio native Jonathan Winters slipped the surly bonds of earth to touch the face of God this week [credit: Ronaldus Magnus] at the age of 87.  Born in Dayton, Ohio in 1925, as a young boy he moved to Springfield, Ohio at just about the time My Dear Elderly Mother was born there.  Winters has long been a favorite of the current and former denizens of The Ranch.  While it would be impossible to cite a single, preeminent accomplishment, Jonathan Winters' performance in It's A Mad Mad Mad Mad World (a film highlighted on the ol' web page numerous times) merits recognition here, today, as a small way in which I can pay my respects.  First up, a one-minute clip which my Obamanomics/Euro-socialist/99%er pals will thoroughly enjoy:

Jonathan Winters' case for paying taxes

And the sequence that never fails to have me laughing until it hurts, the infamous gas station scene:

Gas Station Destruction Scene

Long-range Reconnaissance

Prior to Reds Opening Day, I introduced most of you to the Chicago Cubs old ballpark (not Wrigley old, but older even than that!), the West Side Grounds.   That ballpark featured a grandstand that resembled a section of the Second City's celebrated "El." Here's a photo from the same perspective as you saw before, but from 1904 (instead of being from the 1906 World Series.  See; March 26 post, below):

In 1907 the Cubs defeated Ty Cobb's Detroit Tigers in that season's Fall Classic.  The photo below gives you a closer look at the grandstand during the 1907 World Series:

By 1908, the Cubs extended the grandstand further down the lines and also had, evidently, relaxed their on-field seating policy by permitting fans to bring seats and benches onto the field:

The next chapter in Long-range Reconnaissance will interrupt the on-going baseball theme for one that spotlights The First Saturday In May.

Talkin' Baseball

The Reds 2013 Opening Day proved to be the longest in franchise history, clocking in at 4 hours 45 minutes.  It certainly felt like the longest-ever, what with the Reds going 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position, with wind chills hovering in the 30s and the mighty Redlegs ultimately losing 3-1 in 13 innings.

Adding insult to injury, my trusty old Nikon Coolpix L12 has stopped communicating with any and all of my computers so I am unable to upload and share with you all of the wonderful photos I took on Opening Day.  I could still go the old fashioned route, far be it for me to do something so retrograde, and have my photos developed but, well, we'll see about that. From my perch in the 7th row of the Sun Deck I took the usual photos of right fielders Jay Bruce and Joey Hamilton warming up and fielding their positions, photos of center fielders Shin-Soo Choo and Mike Trout doing likewise at their positions, and a few photographs of Joey Votto batting.  Nothing you haven't seen from Opening Days or 2010/2012 NLDS' before.  

The lone exception being the photos I snapped of the fly-over.  

This year, the President's sequester cuts of which he originated but took no responsibility for and of which he said during a debate would not take effect yet have taken effect and of which are simply a decrease in the rate of increase but, somehow, he is eliminating White House tours and border agents and military funerals and air show participation and ceremonial fly-overs and..... And as a result we did not enjoy the fruits of our taxation burden by being granted an active duty military fly-over, rather we had something just as good; Three museum pieces, two T-28s escorting a B-25 from the (private) Tri-State Warbird Museum, graced us with an elegant and dignified fly-over which cast a glorious light on the righteous recuperative powers of non-governmentally-affiliated-multi-hyphenated entities and was simultaneously evocative of those halcyon days of Pax Americana yesteryear.  If you are so inclined to patronize their website [ Hit This Link If You Love B-25s ], you will see on their homepage a photo taken on Opening Day somewhat akin to one of my photos.  I was lucky enough to snap one photo as they approached the ballpark, with the Power Stacks in view, another when the planes were directly overhead (similar to the photo on the Warbird webpage) and a third as they exited over top the first base grandstand.  You might even see those photos someday.  That is, if the President and his crypto-communist henchpersons don't sequester them.

Prior to the first pitch, big brother Lou and I grabbed some LaRosa's pizza and ice-cold Coca-Cola's and found a spot in the Fan Zone to enjoy our feast.  Soon, Lou discovered that our location provided a comic photographic opportunity:

Where we were eating, the signage on the ballpark appeared to read "Eat American Ball Park."  And what, I axe you, is more American than LaRosa's pizza?  You may notice, upon closer examination of the VistaVision version of the photo above, that my face was covered in pizza sauce.  Its warmth served as a soothing - and tasty - balm against the chilly wind briskly blowing off the Ohio River.  The perspective from our picnic (does anyone else detect a creeping alliterationism in today's blog or is it just me?) permitted us to peep (OK, I'm doing it on purpose now) the T-28s and the B-25 in formation gracefully circling Newport, Kentucky in a holding pattern.  Truly a sight to behold.

Speaking of such, Mark "Big Strick" Strickland, dutifully reporting from Washington, D.C., submitted the following photo from his experience at the Nationals' home opener held the same day:

Here's the de-classified portion of Big Strick's communique;  At the Nats/Marlins opener in DC.  Taft is the new President added to the Presidents race.  I thought he would have been a Reds fan!  Subscriber submissions are always welcome at Heavy Artillery.  Big Strick's was especially helpful in light of my inability to share any further Opening Day photos.

*********

Everyone knows about the foibles and follies of Barry Bonds, "the San Francisco Cheat" [credit: Lou].  Spring cleaning at The Ranch unearthed the following newspaper feature from 1999:

In 1999, his fourteenth in the Big Leagues, the 34-year old Barry Bonds ranked only 65th all-time by SABR. That '99 season Bonds batted .262 with 34 home runs and 83 runs batted in.  Two years later, at the age of 36, he was batting .328 with 73 homers and 137 RBI.  We all know why;  P.E.D.  Performance Enhancing Drugs.

This leads me back to a feature that appeared on the ol' web page in 2011 (in part because spring cleaning unearthed my handwritten draft of said subject), analyzing Derek Jeter's prospects of surpassing the Hit King's total of 4256 hits, which - at the time - was all the rage among The Knights of the Keyboard [credit: Ted Williams].

You may recall that Jeter and Rose have close birth months (Jeter born in June; Rose in April) and that both playing careers began at roughly the same point in their respective ages (Jeter broke into the Big Leagues at age 21, in 1995, with only 48 at bats but then in 1996 at age 22 he had 582 at bats; Rose's rookie season was in 1963, at age 22, when he had 623 at bats).  Through the 2009 season, at age 35, Derek Jeter had recorded 2747 hits.  At the end of the 1976 season, when Pete Rose was 35 years old, he's amassed 2762 hits, or just 15 more hits.

In 2010, at age 36, Jeter had a 179-hit season.  In 1977, at age 36, Rose had a 204-hit season, extending his lead to 40 hits.

In 2011, at age 37, Derek "Mr November" Jeter batted .297 and recorded 162 hits.  In 1978, at age 37, Peter Edward Rose batted .302 and had 198 hits.   The gap had widened between the Yankee captain and the Hit King to 76 hits.

Then something rather curious happened last season, in 2012.  At the wizened old age of 38, Derek Jeter had a Fountain of Youth type season in which he hit .316, when he hadn't broken above .300 in three of the previous four seasons, and somehow managed to collect a robust 216 hits, whereas in three of the previous four seasons he'd failed to collect as many as 180 hits.  Hmmm, one might vocalize.  P.E.D.?  Yet before you get too exited about Jeter's age 38 performance, be advised that in 1979, at age 38, Pete Rose batted .331 (his fifth season in a row batting above .300, and his 14th out of the previous 15 seasons - nothing unexpected or suspect about that achievement), and recorded 208 hits (only once out the previous 8 seasons had Rose failed to collect as many as 198 hits - again, nothing suspect there either).  The end result is that Jeter's suspect revitalization narrowed the gap between the two players to 68 hits.

At this stage in their careers, Jeter had 3304 hits; Rose 3372.

Which brings us to 2013.

Derek Jeter, hobbled around the Grapefruit League all spring on his "recovering" broken ankle before being shutdown.  Reports out of the Bronx hint at a May 1st date for the Yankee captain's return to action.  What Jeter eventually makes of his 39-year old season remains to be seen.  Pete Rose, in 1980 at the age of 39, played in all 162 games, had 739 plate appearance, 655 official at bats and collected 185 hits.  Show of hands; Anybody here think Jeter will approach those numbers in 2013?  My Reily math fails me here but in order for Jeter to simply maintain his current deficiency in hits then, by his missing a month - or more - of the 2013 season, if Jeter returns on or shortly after May 1st he'd then need to play in practically every game thereafter and - this is where my Reily math bumps against its limitations - he would have to bat something like .350 or more (you'll have to work out the formula for me).  For his 18-year career, only twice has Jeter batted as high as .340, and even then he has not done so since 2006.  

Consider this point, also; Until now, Jeter has been a durable player, appearing in 148 or more games every season save for two.  In 2003 Jeter appeared in only 119 games (missing 43 games that season) and in 2011 he played in just 131 games (missing 31 games that season).  By every account Jeter should miss this season, at minimum, approximately 30 games.  In 2011, when Jeter missed 31 games, he still managed over 500 at bats, batting .297 but collected only 162 hits.  Should Jeter equal that performance in 2013, his hit total at this season's end would be 3466 whereas Pete Rose's hit total at the conclusion of the 1980 season was 3557, or 91 more hits.  If, on the other hand, Jeter replicates his 2003 season in which he missed 43 games then he would still manage nearly 500 at bats (482), bat .324 but still collect only 156 hits, or 97 fewer than Rose.  Conversely, if you - like me - suspect Jeter will miss many more games than those suppositions and that Jeter will not hit .300 then by season's end Derek Jeter should be looking at a gap of more than 100 hits. 

The only, faint, glimmer of hope for the Jeteristas out there is that in 1981 a players' strike limited Pete Rose's hit total during his age 40 season, a season in which Rose was batting .325 and leading the league in hits (with 140).  The 2014 season, when Jeter likewise turns 40, provides an opportunity for the Yankee captain to narrow the gap with Rose.

The glimmer of hope for Derek Jeter again diminishes when you learn that at the age of 40 and beyond, Pete Rose collected 699 hits.  Even if we charitably allow Derek Jeter to maintain his current deficiency of 68 hits after this 2013 season, which I do no think possible, then beginning with the 2014 season - when Jeter turns 40 years old - his career hit total at that point will trail Peter Edward Rose by 767 hits.  If, however, like me you think Jeter will fall further behind Rose after this 2013 season, perhaps by 100 or more hits in total, that all-time difference increases to something closer to 800 hits.

That is equivalent to four 200-hit seasons.  Jeter has never had four consecutive 200-hit seasons. 

Or, that is more than five 150-hit seasons.  Will Derek Jeter continue playing into 2019, when his five+ 150-hit seasons brings him into a tie, all-time, with Pete Rose?  That would amount to a 25-year playing career for Jeter.  Derek Jeter would be 45 years old in 2019.

If one examines the Games Played leader board, among the Top100 all-time, there have only been four players to play as many as 25 seasons:

Rickey Henderson (25 seasons, 1979-2003; 4th all-time in Games Played)
Eddie Collins (25 seasons, 1906-30; 20th all-time)
Cap Anson (27 seasons, 1871-97; 49th all-time)
Bobby Wallace (25 seasons, 1894-1918; 86th all-time)

You read it on the ol' web page in 2011 and you're reading it here again;  No chance Derek Jeter catches Pete Rose's all-time hit record of 4256.

Next week, I will dust off another gem from my 2011 notes;  The uselessness of OPS.

For now, I will leave you with this:

Woodpecker!  There.  I said it.

This fellow visited The Ranch yesterday, inspecting a maple tree which had been topped in a fierce thunderstorm a few years ago.

Reds Opening Day 2013

In this space you may have expected to find an analysis of the Reds' new center fielder/lead off batter/Korean legend Shin-Soo Choo or perhaps something about the now-annual Cuban Missile Starter/Closer Crisis or maybe a projection about Mike Leake or ubiquitous statements on the greatness of Joey Votto and Robert (he let's me call him "Bob") Castellini.  I plan to present you with some routine baseball analysis next week.  

Today is a holiday in Reds Country and as such it brings with it happy feelings, light moods, reflection, bright hopes for the future and focus on enjoying the moment.  The aim of this blog entry, today, is to share with you reflections of Reds' past which, I hope, will fill you with happy feelings.

Linked below you will find four consecutive years worth of Reds' telecast "openings" [television broadcast terminology] from the mid-to-late 1980s.  This was a period that most of you will remember fondly from your own childhoods' of budding Reds fanaticism.  You will, in these four clips, see four different announcing teams, brief pre-game player interviews and assorted highlight replays of many of your favorite Reds from the Pete Rose managerial era.  I particularly enjoy the low-tech graphics (by our modern standards) and appreciate the effort of crafting theme music which makes a valiant attempt of being evocative of the iconic This Week In Baseball theme.

The Telecast Opening From 1985

OPENING DAY Telecast Open From 1986

1987

1988

Next, an NBC Game of the Week opening from 1985.  The Mets were visiting Cincinnati that afternoon and a young Bob Costas was calling the game:

1985 Game of the Week on NBC

Below, a half-inning of play-by-play and color commentary from 1988 with Marty & Joe that will take you back to those long-ago summer nights sitting on the back patio, drinking an ice cold Coca-Cola and listening to the Reds on 700 WLW:

Marty & Joe from 1988

Next, Tracy Jones struck by a foul ball while sitting in the dugout in 1987.  Marty Brennaman and Johnny Bench call the action:

Tracy Jones Hit In The Coconut

Long-range Reconnaissance

This week we look back at the Cincinnati Reds from one hundred years ago and presented here without the usually extensive explanation for which you have been accustomed.  Leading off, the Reds official team photo from 1913 taken at Redland Field (later renamed Crosley Field):

Batting second, as it were, Reds outfielder Bob Bescher (below), photographed warming up before a game against the New York Giants at the Polo grounds in 1913.  Just two seasons earlier, Bescher stole 81 bases for the Reds while striking out just 78 times.  I would ask if Drew Stubbs is reading this but who cares about Stubby?

Batting third (below), outfielder Johnny Bates taking bating practice at the Polo Grounds.  Bates really turned on one in this photo, looking like he just jacked one down the right field line....or perhaps pulling it foul by a mile.  Or two.  This is understandable, since the distance from home to the right field foul pole was only about 260' (but almost 450' to right-center):

Pitching for the Reds at the Polo Grounds that day was Rube Benton, photographed below warming up before the start of the game:

Game time at the Polo Grounds (below) on May 7, 1913.  This just happens to be the birthday of a noted North Carolinian paleontologist:

Next is a somewhat perplexing photograph.  It depicts four of the Reds pitchers in 1913, including (at right) Mordecai "Three-Finger" Brown.  1913 was the only season this legendary pitcher toiled for the Reds, so we know the photo dates from 1913.  What is odd is that the Reds were photographed in their home uniforms yet the ballpark you see is NOT Redland Field (which opened in 1912).  This may have been a scene from spring training or perhaps an exhibition game but the source information claims the photo was taken in June (I think the bare trees in the background refute that assertion):

Since Long-range Reconnaissance is known to feature photos of a more expansive nature, we will conclude this Opening Day update with two panoramic photos of Cincinnati's riverfront.  Below, the scene from atop the under-construction John A. Roebling Suspension Bridge in 1866:

Lastly, we conclude with the Cincinnati riverfront circa 1914 as seen from the mouth of the Licking River (which divides Covington, Kentucky [at left] from Newport, Kentucky [at right]):

Look for me in the 7th row of the Sun Deck, in the right-center power alley.  I will be the guy wearing the Reds cap.

Go Reds!