Talkin' Baseball

The Reds 2013 Opening Day proved to be the longest in franchise history, clocking in at 4 hours 45 minutes.  It certainly felt like the longest-ever, what with the Reds going 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position, with wind chills hovering in the 30s and the mighty Redlegs ultimately losing 3-1 in 13 innings.

Adding insult to injury, my trusty old Nikon Coolpix L12 has stopped communicating with any and all of my computers so I am unable to upload and share with you all of the wonderful photos I took on Opening Day.  I could still go the old fashioned route, far be it for me to do something so retrograde, and have my photos developed but, well, we'll see about that. From my perch in the 7th row of the Sun Deck I took the usual photos of right fielders Jay Bruce and Joey Hamilton warming up and fielding their positions, photos of center fielders Shin-Soo Choo and Mike Trout doing likewise at their positions, and a few photographs of Joey Votto batting.  Nothing you haven't seen from Opening Days or 2010/2012 NLDS' before.  

The lone exception being the photos I snapped of the fly-over.  

This year, the President's sequester cuts of which he originated but took no responsibility for and of which he said during a debate would not take effect yet have taken effect and of which are simply a decrease in the rate of increase but, somehow, he is eliminating White House tours and border agents and military funerals and air show participation and ceremonial fly-overs and..... And as a result we did not enjoy the fruits of our taxation burden by being granted an active duty military fly-over, rather we had something just as good; Three museum pieces, two T-28s escorting a B-25 from the (private) Tri-State Warbird Museum, graced us with an elegant and dignified fly-over which cast a glorious light on the righteous recuperative powers of non-governmentally-affiliated-multi-hyphenated entities and was simultaneously evocative of those halcyon days of Pax Americana yesteryear.  If you are so inclined to patronize their website [ Hit This Link If You Love B-25s ], you will see on their homepage a photo taken on Opening Day somewhat akin to one of my photos.  I was lucky enough to snap one photo as they approached the ballpark, with the Power Stacks in view, another when the planes were directly overhead (similar to the photo on the Warbird webpage) and a third as they exited over top the first base grandstand.  You might even see those photos someday.  That is, if the President and his crypto-communist henchpersons don't sequester them.

Prior to the first pitch, big brother Lou and I grabbed some LaRosa's pizza and ice-cold Coca-Cola's and found a spot in the Fan Zone to enjoy our feast.  Soon, Lou discovered that our location provided a comic photographic opportunity:

Where we were eating, the signage on the ballpark appeared to read "Eat American Ball Park."  And what, I axe you, is more American than LaRosa's pizza?  You may notice, upon closer examination of the VistaVision version of the photo above, that my face was covered in pizza sauce.  Its warmth served as a soothing - and tasty - balm against the chilly wind briskly blowing off the Ohio River.  The perspective from our picnic (does anyone else detect a creeping alliterationism in today's blog or is it just me?) permitted us to peep (OK, I'm doing it on purpose now) the T-28s and the B-25 in formation gracefully circling Newport, Kentucky in a holding pattern.  Truly a sight to behold.

Speaking of such, Mark "Big Strick" Strickland, dutifully reporting from Washington, D.C., submitted the following photo from his experience at the Nationals' home opener held the same day:

Here's the de-classified portion of Big Strick's communique;  At the Nats/Marlins opener in DC.  Taft is the new President added to the Presidents race.  I thought he would have been a Reds fan!  Subscriber submissions are always welcome at Heavy Artillery.  Big Strick's was especially helpful in light of my inability to share any further Opening Day photos.

*********

Everyone knows about the foibles and follies of Barry Bonds, "the San Francisco Cheat" [credit: Lou].  Spring cleaning at The Ranch unearthed the following newspaper feature from 1999:

In 1999, his fourteenth in the Big Leagues, the 34-year old Barry Bonds ranked only 65th all-time by SABR. That '99 season Bonds batted .262 with 34 home runs and 83 runs batted in.  Two years later, at the age of 36, he was batting .328 with 73 homers and 137 RBI.  We all know why;  P.E.D.  Performance Enhancing Drugs.

This leads me back to a feature that appeared on the ol' web page in 2011 (in part because spring cleaning unearthed my handwritten draft of said subject), analyzing Derek Jeter's prospects of surpassing the Hit King's total of 4256 hits, which - at the time - was all the rage among The Knights of the Keyboard [credit: Ted Williams].

You may recall that Jeter and Rose have close birth months (Jeter born in June; Rose in April) and that both playing careers began at roughly the same point in their respective ages (Jeter broke into the Big Leagues at age 21, in 1995, with only 48 at bats but then in 1996 at age 22 he had 582 at bats; Rose's rookie season was in 1963, at age 22, when he had 623 at bats).  Through the 2009 season, at age 35, Derek Jeter had recorded 2747 hits.  At the end of the 1976 season, when Pete Rose was 35 years old, he's amassed 2762 hits, or just 15 more hits.

In 2010, at age 36, Jeter had a 179-hit season.  In 1977, at age 36, Rose had a 204-hit season, extending his lead to 40 hits.

In 2011, at age 37, Derek "Mr November" Jeter batted .297 and recorded 162 hits.  In 1978, at age 37, Peter Edward Rose batted .302 and had 198 hits.   The gap had widened between the Yankee captain and the Hit King to 76 hits.

Then something rather curious happened last season, in 2012.  At the wizened old age of 38, Derek Jeter had a Fountain of Youth type season in which he hit .316, when he hadn't broken above .300 in three of the previous four seasons, and somehow managed to collect a robust 216 hits, whereas in three of the previous four seasons he'd failed to collect as many as 180 hits.  Hmmm, one might vocalize.  P.E.D.?  Yet before you get too exited about Jeter's age 38 performance, be advised that in 1979, at age 38, Pete Rose batted .331 (his fifth season in a row batting above .300, and his 14th out of the previous 15 seasons - nothing unexpected or suspect about that achievement), and recorded 208 hits (only once out the previous 8 seasons had Rose failed to collect as many as 198 hits - again, nothing suspect there either).  The end result is that Jeter's suspect revitalization narrowed the gap between the two players to 68 hits.

At this stage in their careers, Jeter had 3304 hits; Rose 3372.

Which brings us to 2013.

Derek Jeter, hobbled around the Grapefruit League all spring on his "recovering" broken ankle before being shutdown.  Reports out of the Bronx hint at a May 1st date for the Yankee captain's return to action.  What Jeter eventually makes of his 39-year old season remains to be seen.  Pete Rose, in 1980 at the age of 39, played in all 162 games, had 739 plate appearance, 655 official at bats and collected 185 hits.  Show of hands; Anybody here think Jeter will approach those numbers in 2013?  My Reily math fails me here but in order for Jeter to simply maintain his current deficiency in hits then, by his missing a month - or more - of the 2013 season, if Jeter returns on or shortly after May 1st he'd then need to play in practically every game thereafter and - this is where my Reily math bumps against its limitations - he would have to bat something like .350 or more (you'll have to work out the formula for me).  For his 18-year career, only twice has Jeter batted as high as .340, and even then he has not done so since 2006.  

Consider this point, also; Until now, Jeter has been a durable player, appearing in 148 or more games every season save for two.  In 2003 Jeter appeared in only 119 games (missing 43 games that season) and in 2011 he played in just 131 games (missing 31 games that season).  By every account Jeter should miss this season, at minimum, approximately 30 games.  In 2011, when Jeter missed 31 games, he still managed over 500 at bats, batting .297 but collected only 162 hits.  Should Jeter equal that performance in 2013, his hit total at this season's end would be 3466 whereas Pete Rose's hit total at the conclusion of the 1980 season was 3557, or 91 more hits.  If, on the other hand, Jeter replicates his 2003 season in which he missed 43 games then he would still manage nearly 500 at bats (482), bat .324 but still collect only 156 hits, or 97 fewer than Rose.  Conversely, if you - like me - suspect Jeter will miss many more games than those suppositions and that Jeter will not hit .300 then by season's end Derek Jeter should be looking at a gap of more than 100 hits. 

The only, faint, glimmer of hope for the Jeteristas out there is that in 1981 a players' strike limited Pete Rose's hit total during his age 40 season, a season in which Rose was batting .325 and leading the league in hits (with 140).  The 2014 season, when Jeter likewise turns 40, provides an opportunity for the Yankee captain to narrow the gap with Rose.

The glimmer of hope for Derek Jeter again diminishes when you learn that at the age of 40 and beyond, Pete Rose collected 699 hits.  Even if we charitably allow Derek Jeter to maintain his current deficiency of 68 hits after this 2013 season, which I do no think possible, then beginning with the 2014 season - when Jeter turns 40 years old - his career hit total at that point will trail Peter Edward Rose by 767 hits.  If, however, like me you think Jeter will fall further behind Rose after this 2013 season, perhaps by 100 or more hits in total, that all-time difference increases to something closer to 800 hits.

That is equivalent to four 200-hit seasons.  Jeter has never had four consecutive 200-hit seasons. 

Or, that is more than five 150-hit seasons.  Will Derek Jeter continue playing into 2019, when his five+ 150-hit seasons brings him into a tie, all-time, with Pete Rose?  That would amount to a 25-year playing career for Jeter.  Derek Jeter would be 45 years old in 2019.

If one examines the Games Played leader board, among the Top100 all-time, there have only been four players to play as many as 25 seasons:

Rickey Henderson (25 seasons, 1979-2003; 4th all-time in Games Played)
Eddie Collins (25 seasons, 1906-30; 20th all-time)
Cap Anson (27 seasons, 1871-97; 49th all-time)
Bobby Wallace (25 seasons, 1894-1918; 86th all-time)

You read it on the ol' web page in 2011 and you're reading it here again;  No chance Derek Jeter catches Pete Rose's all-time hit record of 4256.

Next week, I will dust off another gem from my 2011 notes;  The uselessness of OPS.

For now, I will leave you with this:

Woodpecker!  There.  I said it.

This fellow visited The Ranch yesterday, inspecting a maple tree which had been topped in a fierce thunderstorm a few years ago.