This is where I came in. As a true believer in Saint Peter Edward's Holy Church of Eternal Hits, I knew this claim to be simultaneously in dogmatic apostasy and blasphemous!
Going back to those halcyon days of yesteryear when I published the now-defunct yet long lamented ol' web page, each Hot Stove season I faithfully updated the developments in this race. This week "Captain Clutch" (I love that cereal, particularly the peanut butter variety) announced via social media his intention to
To bring everyone back up to speed:
Pete Rose began his playing career in 1963 at the age of 22. His birthday being a national holiday, everybody knows that Peter Edward was born April 14, 1941. Therefore, Pete was 21 years old on Opening Day, 1963 and he turned 22 years of age one week into the '63 season. Rose played 157 games that season, amassing 696 plate appearances and 170 hits (batting .273) on his way to winning the 1963 National League Rookie of the Year award. Derek Jeter began his Major League career as a September call-up in 1995 as a 21-year old (his being born in June of '74, as if anyone would care about such a trivial matter), garnering 48 at bats and 12 hits (batting .250). As you can plainly see, this means that both Rose and Jeter began their Major League playing careers at approximately the same ages (+/- 22 years old). The following season, 1996, when Jeter turned 22, he collected 183 hits, bringing him to a total of 195 hits by the end of what Baseball-Reference.com refers to as his 22-year old season, putting him 25 hits ahead of Rose at approximately the same points in their respective careers (or ages).
Through their respective age 38 seasons - 1979 for Pete Rose and 2012 for Derek Jeter - Rose had recorded 3372 hits and Jeter 3304. By that stage (the end of 2012), Derek's pace had faltered behind Pete's by 68 hits. To be accurate, Jeter had fallen behind Pete's torrid pace several season's earlier - this was not a new development. It may be of interest to note that Jeter had 216 hits and batted .316 in 2012, Rose ended the 1979 season with 208 hits while batting .331.
Herewith, I now give you the latest standings:
Derek Jeter was beset with injury in 2013 (his age 39 season), playing in only 17 games and accruing a mere 12 hits (batting .190). This brings Jeter's to-date career total of hits to 3316. In 1980, the age 39 season for Pete Rose, the Hit King played in 162 games (739 plate appearances), tallied 185 hits and batted .282. Through his 1980 season, Rose had recorded 3557 lifetime hits. Today, as pitchers and catchers are reporting to spring training camps in advance of the 2014 Major League baseball season, Derek Jeter - entering what will be his age 40 season - trails Pete Rose's pace (but not lifetime total) by 241 hits.
Ergo, if Mr November stays true to his word and hangs up his spikes at the conclusion of this season, he will need 940 hits this year in order to equal the lifetime total of 4256 recorded by the Hit King, Peter Edward Rose. For perspective, the all-time single season record for plate appearances is 778, set by Jimmy Rollins in 2007 (Pete Rose has three of the top ten all-time single season plate appearances; from 1974-1976 Rose had 771, 764 and 759 [successively]).
Through a quirk of collective bargaining fate, a Major League players' strike shortened Pete's 1981 (age 40) season. While Rose led the N.L. in hits that season with 140 (batting a robust .325), he played in but 107 games (431 at bats). This 2014 season is one in which, thanks to that '81 strike, Jeter may close the gap of the pace, even if only minimally. However, the issue was never a matter of how well Jeter had been doing prior to his age 40 season but rather how well he might have done after the age of 40. At an age when, unless a player is using performance enhancing drugs (all that was available to Pete was Aqua Velva), player performance drops off precipitously, Pete Rose soldiered on setting yet another record; 699 career hits following his age 39 season. That was the statistical measure which would have ultimately been the undoing of Jeter's challenge upon the all-time hit record had he not decided to
None of the foregoing should be construed as a criticism of Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter will be, deservedly so, a first ballot Hall of Famer in the year 2020. He has been a very good-to-great hitter. He's been the leader, both in the clubhouse and on the field, for a handful of World Series champions. He's been an All-Star a dozen or so times, an accomplishment only partially helped by his having played in New York. And it wasn't Jeter's fault that so many baseball writers/commentators were speculating on his potential assault on the all-time hit record. But as the late, great Reds manager Sparky Anderson said at a press conference in the Bronx during the 1976 World Series in response to a question from the New York media asking for the Main Spark to draw a comparison between Reds catcher Johnny Bench and Yankee backstop Thurman Munson; "...don't ask me to compare Johnny Bench with any other catcher, don't embarrass anyone." [source: sabr.org bio for Munson] Likewise, don't embarrass Jeter by trying to compare him to Charlie Hustle. 4000 hits is a lot of hits.
Make yourself comfortable, because this is not where the truth about Mr November ends. I'm about to bury you in a blizzard of stats. But first, some background.....
For years now, seemingly two-thirds of all ESPN Sunday Night Baseball games involve the Yankees (and one-half of those are Yankee-Red Sox games. Yawn.) During the playoffs, the Yankee games are routinely scheduled for a prime time audience, whereas teams like the Reds have their playoff games scheduled for early afternoon when the only people watching are in the grandstand at Great American Ball Park. This is all to say that, whether we like it or we don't (we don't), we suffer numerous Yankee games every year. During the course of so many Yankee games, Derek Jeter will make an ordinary play, by Big League standards, and the broadcasters turn to jelly, becoming all fan-girl on Captain Clutch. [Peanut butter Captain Clutch is great with a splash of milk] I have this good friend who played a little Division I college baseball back in the twentieth century. To protect his identity, let's say his name is Woey Jilhelm. His father has a Doctorate in Hitting, but that won't help you to identify my pal. One thing you should understand about
With Derek Jeter embarking on a 2014 farewell tour, we will be subjected to year-long hagiographical blathering about Jeter being the greatest shortstop of all-time. As my close personal friends in Public Enemy implored, Don't believe the hype! Before you get brainwashed, I feel it my duty as a baseball fan to set the record straight about Derek Jeter, the shortstop, and all the ways in which Hall of Fame shortstop Barry Larkin was better.
Forthwith; The truth about Mr November!
Barry Larkin's Major League playing career began at age 22 when he played in 41 games for the Cincinnati Reds in 1986 (then managed by Pete Rose, funny those webs we weave). Larkin played through his age 40 season (again, using the Baseball-Reference.com metrics), retiring following his 19th season in the Big Leagues. This upcoming season, Jeter's final, will be his age 40 season. As of the conclusion of the 2013 season, Jeter has played 19 seasons. Aside from 3 games his Rookie season, Larkin played no other position than shortstop. Jeter has played only shortstop. Larkin's highest single-season batting average was .342 which he achieved at age 25 (1989). Jeter's highest single-season batting average is .349 which he achieved at age 25 (1999). Larkin recorded his second-highest single-season batting average at age 31. Jeter's second-highest single-season batting average occurred during his age 32 season. Larkin played college baseball at Michigan. Jeter was a Kalamazoo, Michigan high school standout. The similarities are eerie. Larkin's secretary was named Jeter, and Jeter's secretary was named Larkin. OK, I made up that last one for all the conspiracy theorists out there. The playing careers for Larkin and Jeter overlapped for ten seasons, from 1995-2004.
It will not surprise the minions of Jeter to know that Jeter has been the better batter for average over the course of their respective careers, .312 vrs .295 for Barry Larkin. If you should engage in projecting what Jeter might bat over the course of his final season in 2014 - always mindful of his advanced age of 40 - bear in mind that only once among the past 4 seasons has Jeet equaled or exceeded his (current) lifetime batting average of .312 (and batting .270 in 2010 and .190 in 2013). Jeter also holds, currently, the lifetime on-base percentage advantage over Larkin, .381 to .371. Over his past six seasons, Mr November has equaled or exceeded that mark just once (.406 in 2009; .355, .362 and .288 sequentially over his three most recent seasons). Here, one might easily surmise that when the dust settles that Larkin may indeed have the higher lifetime OBP. If he does not, he'll be within hailing distance. Where the legion of Captain Clutch (I prefer my peanut butter Captain Clutch in a glass bowl and with a chilled stainless steel spoon) may be shocked - SHOCKED! - is that currently Jeter only maintains a .002 advantage in slugging percentage, .446 to .444. As you might guess, over the past four seasons Jeter has failed to equal or exceed that mark. Should Derek slip just the slightest amount in slugging percentage he will retire with a lower SLG than Barry Larkin.
On that last note about SLG, and as a brief aside, I recall that a certain element of my loyal subscribers - alleged lifelong fans of the Cincinnati Reds - vociferously refuted my assertion over those years leading up to Barry Larkin's induction into the Hall of Fame, that Larkin was not a Five Tool player. He didn't hit for power!, so said the unwashed unbelievers. Whether those same loyal subscribers perceive Jeter as hitting for power or whether they do not think that, as it applies to Larkin you don't have to take my word on the subject. The National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown defines Barry Larkin as a Five Tool player.
Quoting the Beastie Boys' song "Live at P.J.'s," Back to the beat, y'all.....
Among the highest accolades heaped upon Derek Jeter's batting prowess is his statistical record in the postseason. Granted, Jeter has played in many many more playoff games than did Barry Larkin, in part due to the radically expanded playoff format of today's game. The lifetime World Series slashlines (AVG/OBP/SLG) for Jeter and Larkin are listed below (and recall that Jeter is lauded for his peanut butter cereal-like "clutch" abilities):
J: .321/.384/.449
L: .353/.421/.529
League Championship Series slashlines (lifetime):
J: .257/.340/.412
L: .317/.378/.463
League Division Series slashlines (lifetime):
J: .343/.397/.519
L: .385/.429/.385
Of the nine individual slashline statistical categories above, Larkin recorded the higher stat in eight of nine (and in that single LDS appearance he made [in 1995], Larkin faced two of this year's Hall of Fame inductees Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, hence the lower LDS SLG). When it mattered most, which of the two shortstops was more clutch in the batters' box? The answer is obvious.
At this stage in our comparative analysis, one might fairly suggest the two shortstops are, in terms of offense, even. Jeter slightly better over the course of the regular season; Larkin better in the post season. I wonder, though, if Jeter's lifetime OBP and SLG dip further following the 2014 season, would there be any doubt as to which was the better all-around batter?
Twice Derek Jeter led the American League in hits (219 in 1999 and again with 216 in 2012), a feat Larkin never achieved. Jeter has eight seasons with 200 or more hits, Larkin's highest hit total was 185 (1990). Jeter's 3316 career hits outpaces Larkin's 2340 by a wide margin. Jeter has (to date) 525 doubles, Larkin 441. Jeter has (to date) 256 home runs and 1261 runs batted in, Larkin 198 home runs and 960 RBI. Derek Jeter never stole as many as 35 bases in a single season, Barry Larkin stole 36 bases in 1996, 40 in 1988 and 51 in 1995. Of course, that 1995 season saw Barry Larkin honored as the National League Most Valuable Player, an award (in his respective American League) that Derek Jeter never earned. And lest anyone should forget, in 1996 Barry Larkin became the first 30/30 shortstop; 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in the same season. Jeter never hit as many as 25 home runs in any single season. Larkin's 76 career triples leads Jeter's 65 (Derek has had no triples since he had 4 in 2011; he won't equal or exceed Larkin here). Larkin has 379 career stolen bases (77 times caught stealing) to Jeter's 348 stolen bases (and 95 times caught stealing). Jeter has a total of 9 stolen bases (4 times caught stealing) over the past two seasons, he will not equal or exceed Larkin in stolen bases. For his career, Jeter has averaged 109 strikeouts per 162-game season, Larkin 61. Jeter has grounded into double plays 272 times for his career, Larkin 178. Recapping just this paragraph's worth of data; Derek Jeter has had higher hit totals per season, and more 200-hit seasons, more doubles and many more career hits than Barry Larkin. Also, Jeter has more lifetime HRs and RBI. Yet Larkin has higher single season stolen base totals, more lifetime stolen bases and a better stolen base percentage, more triples, has a nearly 50% lower strikeout rate, nearly 100 fewer GIDP, a 30/30 season and one MVP award.
One might fairly say the two players are still, perhaps more or perhaps less, equal at this point in our comparative analysis.
Barry Larkin's career totals in categories such as hits, doubles, home runs, etc have been hampered, in large part, to his inability to stay healthy. His GIDP total aided in this respect. Only seven times in his 19 seasons did Larkin play in 140 or more games; Jeter has 15 seasons with 140+ games played. That said, durability is one factor in evaluating the superiority of a player. Advantage, Jeets.
Whereas you and I might quibble over which statistical category should weigh more than others and how the various stats might settle each of our own minds as to whether one shortstop was the better, consider this; Baseball-Reference.com uses a batter rating system known as the EloRater (go here for a detailed explanation of how it works). For example, its top 10 all-time batters are, in order:
Babe Ruth
Honus Wagner
Lou Gehrig
Ted Williams
Willie Mays
Stan Musial
Ty Cobb
Henry Aaron
Mickey Mantle
Rogers Hornsby
Are you on board so far?
Among the EloRater's top 10 active batters (as of the 2013 season, some have since retired, etc), in order:
Ichiro
Albert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Derek Jeter
Todd Helton
Adrian Beltre
Lance Berkman
Manny Ramirez
Miguel Cabrera
Carlos Beltran
Are you mostly still on board with the EloRater? Surely we all agree that Cabrera, a Triple Crown winner, should probably be ranked a little higher than 9th but at least he's in the top 10.
The EloRater all-time ranking for Barry Larkin is #72.
The EloRater all-time ranking for Derek Jeter is #96.
You don't have to accept my well-reasoned and factually backed propositions. Credible, independent, third-party sources rate Larkin a better hitter than Jeter.
And yet, the shortstop position is primarily a defense-oriented position, acknowledged as the premium defensive position on the field (just ahead of catcher and, at least historically, center field). It is here where the real, sad, truth about Mr November emerges.
One historical measure for defense has been the so-called fielding percentage (putouts plus assists divided by total chances). The accuracy of this stat depends, of course, upon official scorers who are unbiased, immune to influence, and knowledgeable in the rules and routine play of the game of baseball. One might wonder, as his superstar career progressed, how Derek Jeter has been aided in this area by official scorers who are loathe to be the target of scorn from - or on the behalf of - the Yankee captain. Keep that in mind as you peruse the fielding percentage stats referenced below.
Among the newer, SABR-centric stats used to evaluate a player's defensive achievements are Range Factor (devised by the great Bill James; putouts plus assists divided by innings played.... and I hate math, look what's become of me!) and something which has the appearance of junk science (like OPS) but may in fact be meritorious (like WHIP) known as DWAR or Defensive Wins Above Replacement (go here for a detailed explanation of WAR in general. I tapped out after Stats 101 in college).
Derek Jeter played in only 17 games in 2013 due to injury. Out of fairness, let's skip the Yankee captain's DWAR from last season (it isn't good, and he didn't have enough innings played to qualify for fielding percentage [hereafter designated as F%] nor Range Factor [hereafter designated as RF]) according to the ESPN sortable database.
in 2012, Derek Jeter's F% was .980, or 6th best among the 21 MLB qualifying shortstops. Pretty good, no? No. Remember our postulation (above) regarding official scorers. In 2012, Jeter's RF was LAST among the 21 qualifying shortstops. Equally bad, if not worse, was Jeter's 2012 DWAR of [-1.4], ranking him 128th out of all 130 players who played even as little as one game at shortstop that season. In a nutshell, the average AAA (or "4-A," if you will) shortstop would have, through his defensive performance alone, contributed 1.4 more wins to the New York Yankees in 2012 than did Derek Jeter.
What do Jayson Nix, Eduardo Nunez, and Ramiro Pena have in common? They all played some shortstop in 2012 for the Yankees and they all did it better than did Mr November.
In 2011, Jeter's F% slipped a little, to .972. This dropped his ranking among MLB qualifying shortstops to 14th. He was LAST in RF and 115th out of 122 in MLB in DWAR [-1.0].
What did Eduardo Nunez and Ramiro Pena have in common in 2011? That's right. They also played at shortstop for the Yankees that season and did it better than Mr November.
In 2010, Jeter was #1 in all of MLB among qualifying shortstops in F% (at .989). That's great, no? No. Jeet's RF was 20th out of 21 among those same MLB qualifying shortstops. Derek's DWAR was a little better, his [-0.1] ranking 80th out of 118. Still worse than a replacement AAA shortstop.
As we continue to work backward, in 2009 Derek Jeter was younger and better (weren't we all?). His .986 F% had him ranked 3rd among all qualifying MLB shortstops, Jeets' DWAR was a positive number, at 1.0, while his RF was ranked 21st out of 22 qualifying MLB shortstops. In summation, Mr November could be counted upon to make more plays on balls that he got to than almost all other qualifying shortstops even if he could not get to as many balls as the rest of MLB. I'm not sure, was that a backhanded compliment? Upon re-reading it - yes. Yes it was.
Over the reverse span of 2008-2007-2006-2005 Derek Jeter gets progressively younger but not better. Shouldn't he have been getting better? Here are Derek Jeter's reverse chronological order DWARs for this 2008-2005 period:
2008: [-0.2], 90th of 128
2007: [-1.5], Last out of 120
2006: [-0.8], 112th of 118
2005: [-1.9], 127th of 128. Might as well be last.
From 2005 through the 2009 season, what did Jerry Hairston, Jr, Cody Ransom, Ramiro Pena, Wilson Betimit, Alberto Gonzalez, Miguel Cairo, Chris Basak, Nick Green, Andy Cannizaro, Rey Sanchez, Mark Bellhorn, Alex Rodriguez and Felix Escalona have in common? In terms of DWAR, they all played shortstop for the New York Yankees better than did Derek Jeter.
The 2005 season brings us to the start of the post-Barry Larkin era in MLB.
Before we begin to include Barry Larkin's defensive stats, let us review. From 2005 through 2013 Derek Jeter routinely was to be found among the very worst shortstops in both RF and, more significantly, DWAR. I ask you; How can the greatest shortstop of all-time also be, among his contemporaries, the worst fielding shortstop? I axe you this, Marty; How can the greatest shortstop of all-time also be a larger liability at his position than would have been the average AAA replacement? It is, in a word, incredulous.
In 2004, Barry Larkin was 40 years old, Jeter 30 years of age. Barry Larkin played in 111 games, not enough to qualify for F% or RF. Larkin posted a [-0.8] DWAR, ranking him 117th out of 123. Jeter-like, one might suggest. In 2004, Jeter recorded a [-0.4] DWAR, 106th best. Jeter was therefore microscopically better than a shortstop 10 years his senior, oft-injured and on his last legs as a Major Leaguer. You go, Mr November!
In 2003, a 39-year old Barry Larkin had a positive 0.1 DWAR, good for 57th out of 118. B Lark's 70 games played prevented him from qualifying for F% and RF. Jeet had a [-0.6] DWAR in '03, ranking him 108th of 118.
In 2002, Larkin's 38-year old body produced a F% that was better than Jeter's (.979 vrs .977), Barry's RF was ranked higher than Derek's (13th vrs 27th). Barry's DWAR came in at [-0.1], 86th out of 121 (interestingly, ranking dead last that season was a youngster named Albert Pujols who played 1 game at shortstop for the St Louis Cardinals). Derek Jeter ranked 108th out of 121 with a [-0.9] DWAR.
The 37-year old Barry Larkin only played 45 games in an injury-plagued 2001 season, thus not qualifying for F% or RF. He managed a [-0.2] DWAR, good only for 103rd out of 120. Jeter's [-0.8] DWAR ranked him in a three-way tie for second-to-last out of 120 during a season in which he was 27 years old. In the prime of his playing career. And he couldn't outplay a hobbled Barry Larkin.
After all the foregoing, you'll be relieved to know that my source for all this MLB-wide DWAR, RF and F% - ESPN's database - doesn't extend back beyond the 2000 season. At least not as far as I am able to discern. At any rate, the injury bug which stalked Barry Larkin mercilessly bit again, limiting the Reds legend to 102 games played. The 36-year old Lark's 0.0 DWAR ranked him 77th that season out of 122. Derek Jeter's DWAR? Do you really want to know? Do you really really really want to know? [-1.2], DEAD LAST out of 122.
While Derek Jeter is the example that contradicts the case, seeing as how he did not improve with youth, one must jump with both feet to the conclusion that - using both logic and Larkin's generally improving trajectory of DWAR (as we regressed into his younger playing days) - Barry must have been better in his youth (especially in terms of DWAR, but also F% and RF) than what we see here in his old age... and in Barry Larkin's old age he was a vastly better defensive shortstop than was the much more youthful Derek Jeter.
As to Barry Larkin's younger (pre-2000) days, if we switch sources and go to the Baseball-Reference.com index of all-time leaders, they do provide both yearly league leaders in RF for shortstops and year-by-year top 10's for all MLB players in DWAR (it isn't broken down by individual positions). Therefore, we are now going to look at rankings that include different samples from the ESPN data (above) but which will help to better - if not fully - illuminate Larkin's pre-2000 seasons. In both 1989 and 1990 Barry Larkin was the National League leader in RF at shortstop (#4 among all MLB shortstops each season). Larkin was # 1 in RF among all MLB players/positions in 1991. When examining RF for all MLB players/positions, on a year-by-year basis, Larkin ranked:
#5 in 1988
#4 in 1989
#4 in 1990
#1 in 1991
#9 in 1992
The highest-ranked yearly RF that I found on the ESPN sortable database for Derek Jeter was when, in 2005, he ranked 6th best in RF among 24 qualifying shortstops, a much more narrow criteria than the yearly MLB-wide RF rankings for Larkin posted immediately above. 2005 was, according to Baseball-Refernce.com (here) the only season - for his whole career - that Jeter cracked the top 10 in RF for all MLB shortstops (qualified or not, just squeaking in at #10). Five times in Larkin's career he finished in the top 10 (top 9, really) among all MLB players/positions - not simply among shortstops, including four times in the top 5 and once at #1.
Baseball-Reference.com provides a year-by-year top 10 in DWAR for all MLB players/positions (here), again, not broken down by individual positions. Derek Jeter does not appear among the top 10 for any season of his career. Based upon the analysis above, this should not come as a surprise. Barry Larkin ranked #6 in 1988 among all players/positions in DWAR. This is the only season for which Larkin's name is among the year-by-year top 10 DWAR for all MLB players/positions. However, this overall top 10 ranking in DWAR for 1988 plus the five top 9 rankings in RF among all MLB players/positions with the #1 overall RF ranking in 1991 better illuminates the defensive superiority of Barry Larkin relative to both his own contemporaries in MLB as well as his superiority to Derek Jeter in particular.
[Derailing for a moment, it will interest my fellow Reds fans to know that in 1988, when Barry Larkin ranked #6 overall in DWAR, his teammate on the left side of the infield - Chris Sabo - ranked #4. Ken Griffey Junior ranked #1 overall in 1996 for the Mariners. Nowadays, Reds fans are agog over the spectacular plays made at second base by Brandon Phillips. I often hear Reds Country fans proclaim BP the best they've ever seen at second base for Cincinnati. I never saw Bid McPhee play. I didn't see Johnny Temple. But when I'm asked, I always say that - in my lifetime - I never saw any Cincinnati Red play second base better than did Pokey Reese. In 1999 Pokey ranked #3 overall in MLB DWAR and in 2004, playing for the World Champion Red Sox, Pokey ranked #10 overall. Dat Dude BP has yet to crack the top 10 in DWAR, MLB-wide, during any season of his career.]
Baseball-Reference.com lists the all-time ranking of DWAR for all players, at every fielding position. Ozzie Smith is #1 all-time. Brooks Robinson #3. Pudge Rodriguez #8. Among players we Reds fans care about; Buddy Bell #25, Davey Concepcion #42, Scottie Rolen #46, Johnny Bench #52 (say what?! Willie Mays #62 - that's what playing well past your prime does to your all-time defensive numbers). Barry Larkin's all-time DWAR has him ranked #120. DEREK JETER DOESN'T EVEN RANK AMONG THE TOP 1000. I SAID TOP ONE THOUSAND!
I ask you; How can the all-time greatest shortstop not even rank among the top 1000 all-time in DWAR?
So, remember this as the Derek Jeter Farewell Tour media circus travels North America in 2014; Derek Jeter was, for all his creditable attributes and deserving honors as a Major League baseball player and future Hall of Famer, the worst defensive shortstop of his era. Derek Jeter has been, for 15 or more years, a shortstop that was not as good as a AAA player who might have been called up to take his place.
Don't believe the media hype.
As we look forward to Derek Jeter's 2020 Hall of Fame induction, his batting record, his leadership, his postseason successes all merit for him status as a first ballot HOFer. But his crummy defensive skills ought to limit his vote total to something like 75.1%. I am certain that media hype will elevate him into the 90+% stratosphere.
Roll the credits!
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