"Good writing makes a person think. Sitting quietly and thinking is almost a lost art. And writing is really hard. Good ideas tend to write themselves. But on a bad day, having to squeeze sense out of a lousy idea is as hard as any trade."
The above quote was not crafted, shockingly, with the voluminous postings of Heavy Artillery in mind. We'll return to the source and subject of the quote further down this post.
For those millions of us watching/wagering on this year's Kentucky Derby away from the peaceful solitude of our homes and away from our 800-inch high resolution curved-screen 4D televisions, we missed the much hyped NBC Sports broadcast intro narrated by The Blue Grass State's own Ashley Judd and which featured a Ken Burns Baseball-esque soundtrack, sweeping panoramas of horse farms, swirling translucent bourbon, prancing horses, southern Belles, hard-charging thoroughbreds, roaring crowds and - mixing television network metaphors - the thrill of victory and the suggestion of fans being showered in riches. You may have missed it, too. You can check out the 2-minute clip here.
Last month I shared with you the pictorial feature Calumet Farm; The Rebirth of a Legend as published by The Blood-Horse. That same publication posted a 5-minute film about the Calumet Farm trophy collection as is currently on display for public viewing at the Kentucky Horse Park in Lexington, KY. It will not surprise you to know that I've been to the Kentucky Horse Park on multiple occasions.
Returning to this post's opening quote, it originates from the mind of ESPN.com horse racing writer/humorist Jay Cronley and was taken from his recent column titled "A Worthy Investment." In it he shares his thoughts for why paying for the online version of The Daily Racing Form is a good investment of your pastime dollars. That point made, the author then explains why he prefers the good old fashioned print version of the DRF; a sentiment I share. I've often written here and on the ol' web page of yore about some of my favorite times of each year being those days and evenings - and in the case of the Breeders' Cup, a full week - spent in a quiet, secluded place pouring over every word, figure, number, and statistic to be found in the pages of a Daily Racing Form and taking time to pause, to consider and contemplate meaning and significance. Sure, I could handicap much faster if I tried but that wouldn't be nearly as personally rewarding..... if not always financially rewarding. Financial reward is welcome but not necessary for a pastime one loves. The smudgy ink stains my fingers and hands accumulate are an anachronistic echo of a time distantly receding.
Each year the Preakness Stakes provides handicappers with their easiest, or perhaps laziest, opportunity. We had handicapped the Derby down to a subatomic level, we watched the race and its innumerable replays. Other than reading a few post-Derby/pre-Preakness analyses, there's little more handicapping to be done. The Preakness field will include a half-dozen or so entries that were not eligible for the Derby and, in many years, are often Pimlico-based Maryland homebreds. With no chance of winning. Especially in recent years, the eventual Preakness winner raced two weeks earlier in the Derby. For those of you interested, read this column from The Blood-Horse and this brief analysis from Andy Beyer (originator of the Beyer Speed Figure).
As for this Saturday's Preakness Stakes, I expect the Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah to run well and I think there is a strong probability that he will win. At short odds he does not present an appeal from a singular wagering perspective. From Derby to Preakness, historically, I tend to stay with my Derby horse so long as it ran well in victory at Churchill Downs on The First Saturday in May or if a plausible case could be made for a positive effort despite Derby defeat. I still like Dortmund. I have a concern he'll again inherit the early lead in the Preakness just as he did in the Derby but my expectation is that the shorter distance will work to his benefit and that he'll better fend off a late challenge. My hope is that Dortmund will stalk the pace and have a target to run down in the Pimlico homestretch.
For those few of you with an interest in placing a wager for the fun of cashing a winning ticket, a 1-2-8 Trifecta Box appears to be among the safer exotic wagers. It won't pay much, so don't quit your day job.
A cursory scan of the Preakness Day undercard doesn't, at first glance, appear very strong. The $1.5 million guaranteed Late Pick 4 (beginning with Race 10) has its own appeal. Based on nothing more than a look at the entries (here), caveat emptor, I'd use:
Race 10 - the #9 Holy Boss (morning line odds 6-1)
Race 11 - the 2-1 morning line favorite #5 Shrinking Violet (and maybe also play the #8 Satan's Mistress at odds of 20-1).
Race 12 - the Chilean-bred #5 Tricky Hat (12-1)
Race 13 - the #2 Dortmund (morning line second choice at 7-2, I suspect he'll be the third betting choice at post time). Maybe toss in all three of the Derby top finishers to play it safe.
I can burn the $12 if it all goes down in flames.
Be advised, the early forecast is for a 30% chance of rain in Baltimore on Saturday. With advances in modern meteorology, that may translate by Saturday morning to a 90% chance of rain. Two horses in the Preakness field - Mr Z and Danzig Moon - were sired by Malibu Moon, himself a good mudder and a sire of successful mudders. His mother may or may not have been a mudder.
Preakness Stakes winners are awarded the most fabulous trophy in all of sportsdom, the Woodlawn Vase. You can learn more here.
And speaking of fabulous.....
Roll the credits!
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